Archive for the ‘Education’ category

Introduction into pivot points

December 18th, 2008

The pivot point is usually explained as a predictive indicator. It is calculated by these formulas, which can also be found on the internet:

Resistance 3 = High + 2*(Pivot – Low)
Resistance 2 = Pivot + (R1 – S1)
Resistance 1 = 2 * Pivot – Low
Pivot Point = ( High + Close + Low )/3
Support 1 = 2 * Pivot – High
Support 2 = Pivot – (R1 – S1)
Support 3 = Low – 2*(High – Pivot)

These points can be critical support and resistance levels. The pivot level, support and resistance levels calculated from that are collectively known as pivot levels. This is also the way floor traders can identify possible support or resistance levels for the day. From my own experience I can say that they tend to work on a quiet days best.

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MACD Divergence

December 15th, 2008

I am not a huge fan of indicators, as they all seem to lag behind price action. I also tend to keep things as simple as possible (K.I.S.S. – Keep it Simple, Stupid). Still, there is one indicator I really like – MACD. It is a great tool when used properly and in this post I’ll show you what I mean.

There are different ways to use MACD indicator. The most profitable for me is Negative Divergence. It forms when a stock/commodity/index advances or moves sideways, and the MACD declines. It is the first sing that the price is losing momentum and reversal is highly possible. The Negative Divergence in MACD can take the form of either a lower High or a straight decline. Negative Divergences are probably the least common of the three signals, but are usually the most reliable, and can warn of an impending peak. Usually used in combination with W-tops/bottom, rising/falling wedges. Most reliable when divergence occurs at some important support/resistance area.

Works in different time frames, though the longer the time frame, the more reliable is signal.

Examples:

spx-1min-2511

dax-3min-112

spx-1min-512

NB! Avoid tops/bottom picking (using MACD divergence) on a strong trending day (significant up/down move without any meaningful retracement – see the last chart).

Profitable Trading!

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Wyckoff Schematics I

December 14th, 2008

Accumulation Schematic

Phases A through E: Phases through which the Trading Range passes as conceptualised by the Wyckoff method and explained in the text. Lines A and B… define support of the Trading Range. Lines C and D… define resistance of the Trading Range.

(PS) preliminary Support is where substantial buying begins to provided pronounced support after a prolonged downmove Volume and spread widen and provide a signal that the downmove may be approaching its end.

(SC) Selling Climax… the point at which widening spread and selling pressure usually climaxes and heavy or panicky selling by the public is being absorbed by larger professional interests at prices near a bottom.

(AR) Automatic Rally… selling pressure has been pretty much exhausted. A wave of buying can now easily push up prices which is further fuelled by short covering. The high of this rally will help define the top of the trading range.

(STs) Secondary Test(s)… revisit the area of the Selling Climax to test the supply demand balance at these price levels. If a bottom is to be confirmed, significant supply should not resurface, and volume and price spread should be significantly diminished as the market approaches support in the area of the SC.

The “CREEK” is an analogy to a wavy line of resistance drawn loosely across rally peaks within the trading range. There are of course minor lines of resistance and more significant ones that will have to be crossed before the market’s journey can continue onward and upward.

Springs or Shakeouts usually occur late within the trading range and allow the market and its dominant players to make a definitive test of available supply before a markup campaign will unfold. If the amount of supply that surfaces on a break of support is very light (low volume), it will be an indication that the way is clear for a sustained advance. Heavy supply here will usually mean a renewed decline. Moderate volume here may mean more testing of support and to proceed with caution. The spring or shakeout also serves the purpose of providing dominant interests with additional supply from weak holders at low prices.

Jump Across the Creek (JAC) is a continuation of the creek analogy of jumping resistance and is a good sign if done on good spread and volume – a sign of strength (SOS).

Sign of Strength (SOS)… an advance on good (increasing) spread and volume. Back Up (BU) to a Last Point of Support (LPS) – a pull back to support (that was resistance) on diminished spread and volume after a SOS. This is good place to initiate long positions or to add to profitable ones.

Note: A series of SOS’s and LPS’s is good evidence that a bottom is in place and Price Markup has begun.

w1

Resources: http://www.hankpruden.com/MTWyckoffSchematics.pdf

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