Archive for the ‘Trade update’ category

2007 and 2010 comparison.

March 4th, 2010

Compare the following two charts from the past and the future. It will be interesting to see whether History repeats itself or not.

The chart from December 2007.

The recent price action.

Tomorrow the Nonfarm Numbers will be announced. I have no idea, whether we will sell off, or gap up higher (I would liek to see gap down and then gap close and beyond). Though I am betting we will close lower this time next week.

Bailed out of my GS puts for a loss, switched to longs, closed those for a small profit. Bough AAPL puts for a gamble.

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EUR/USD Update.

March 3rd, 2010

1st Resistance at 1.3490. If broken, traget 1.3820. The chart below shows that we are still stuck in a channel.

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SPX Update. Vacuum up to 1128-1130 area.

March 2nd, 2010

Markets kept going up slowly during yesterday’s trading session. We are now right below the resistance. should a breakout occur on Tuesday, we are going to 1130.

If there is now breakout today, I would be looking for a pullback to 1105. After that it’s anyone’s guess, what will happen next – a break up to 1130 and possibility of 1150, or a breakdown to 1080-1085.

Here is also a Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) chart below. It suggest that there is a lot of Vacuum in the 15 pt. range right above us. So, should the move up happen, it will be FAST.

Still holding my GS puts, as the stock remains under severe pressure.

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List of Stocks to trade.

February 18th, 2010

Here are some interesting possibilities, with 20-30% upside potencial in the Basic Materials Industry:

CDII – buy at 1.55, stop below 1.45. Will be looking for a 100% return in a couple of months.

TIE – this is a real gem, check out the chart below. Looking for >50% return in a couple of months. Buy at 10-11. Stop below 10.40.

ATI – it represents the same chart pattern as TIE, though expected returns are not that exciting. Thus I would suggest buying some 45@March Call Options in this one. Target ~50$ by March Expiration.

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Real trades. Update. Market Overview.

February 17th, 2010

With the latest dollar uprise and the resistance above, there isn’t much chances for the market to rally hard by the end of this week. being an expiration week, there will be a lot of option related chop involved, so I would advice active traders to take a break from the market, or to a least lower the position size.

Today I have made several trades, according to my game plan. Didn’t trade GOOG though, as it lacks momentum and stayed almost flat through the day.

In fact, I was able to make only two trades (others were not executed, as the price hasn’t reached my target):

ABVT – bough February Calls@60 for 0.60$, sold for 1.60$, nice return for a one day’s work.

ADY – The main thing, I like this company is its finances – strong balance sheet, fast growth.I also liek the huge gap above that needs to be closed, thus my target for this stocks is 32$ by next options expiration. Have been accumulating Calls all day long. Average price 1.55 for March@25 calls.

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Google Trade Update

February 15th, 2010

Still holding the options I bough. Looking for 570$ to be hit this week.

Looking for 1100 in SPX by Tuesday/Wendsday.

EUR/USD target 1.38 this week, 1.40 next week.

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The list of potential plays. Update.

January 27th, 2010

This is the update of the list of potential plays from the last week.

With the current pullback in the stock market, most of the companies have reached buying levels. Others have breached below their support levels and headed lower and some have already reached their targets.

The most remarkable calls were in CPE and DSPG. Check out the charts:

The DSPG stock has made a pullback right to the entry point at 5.80 and then reversed all the way to 7$. It looks like it has some steam left. My target would be 7.75 before any rebound.

CPE has risen more than 40% since my call.

Here is the list of the remaining stocks to watch this week:

NTRI
TRA
AGU
TSO
VLO
PETD
ALY
OMNI
CFW
NGAS
WNR

Here is another stock similar to CPE:
KAZ - a US registered company ingaged in oil production and exploration in Kazakhstan. BMB Munai operates under its wholly owned subsidiary Emir Oil. The company is engaged in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas. The Aksaz, Dolinnoe, and Emir oil and gas fields in western Kazakhstan serve as the primary areas for exploration and development. It transports oil and gas via rail, barge, and pipeline through Russian territory.

Although the stock is losing its steam and there is no follow through in price, it is strong fundamentilly. With the market Cap. of ~60$ mil. it has 250$ mil. of proven oil and gas reserves.

I have gone long at 1.20$ and planning to hold this one forawhile. Next week they will aanounce their 3rd quarter results, that should be interesting.

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Exited USD/JPY

January 21st, 2010

Exited USD/JPY here at 91.70.

+ 50 pts.

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Took a loss in SPX. Bough USD/JPY

January 20th, 2010

As I have posted before, SPX was forming a nice buying pattern, so I decided to grab some contracts at 1142. Was stupid enough to hold it for too long, so exited finally at a loss 1138.

After witnessing a downfall in stocks, with all support levels being broken, I turned my attention to currencies. Here is a nice long opportunity in USD/JPY.

Bought some at 91.20, have a very tight stop here at 91.10, so it either works out right away or it doesn’t. My first target is at 92.00, 96-97 longer term.

If I stopped out, will look to get back into position.

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The Day after Tomorrow. Equities overview.

January 5th, 2010

The current price action is inline with my expectations. The projection about Financials turned out to be spot on, with the general market rallying “only” 1,60%, while the XLF index has gained more than 2,00%. So, we can say that the banks are pushing the market higher.

I have no idea of how long this party will be going, so I am placing my bets accordingly. Looking to short SPX futures near the 1135 area or on a breakdown below 1130 (see the chart below). Looking to add on the way down, otherwise will close for a loss.

spx2 5.01spx 5.01

SPX is continuing forming its rising wedge. To say fair enough, the chances of the sudden rise and the sudden fall are equal. For now I’ll stick with my view of a sudden collapse and will be looking to place short bets at a 1125 – 1135 area (see the chart below). There is also a possible Wyckoff Formation in the making.

gold 5.01GOLD also indicates, that the current rise might be done. See the resisting trend lines above? So, if you are into gold trading, I would suggest to short at 1122-1130.

PS. GOLD and SPX are trading at exactly the same level right now.

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