Trader Tony

Trading isn’t farming, nobody needs a cow to do the “work”. The work is done in the mind.

Archive for the ‘Trade update’ category

Took a loss in SPX. Bough USD/JPY

January 20th, 2010

As I have posted before, SPX was forming a nice buying pattern, so I decided to grab some contracts at 1142. Was stupid enough to hold it for too long, so exited finally at a loss 1138.

After witnessing a downfall in stocks, with all support levels being broken, I turned my attention to currencies. Here is a nice long opportunity in USD/JPY.

Bought some at 91.20, have a very tight stop here at 91.10, so it either works out right away or it doesn’t. My first target is at 92.00, 96-97 longer term.

If I stopped out, will look to get back into position.

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Posted in Trade Alert, Trade update

Tags: falling wedge spx stopped out support usd/jpy wedge

The Day after Tomorrow. Equities overview.

January 5th, 2010

The current price action is inline with my expectations. The projection about Financials turned out to be spot on, with the general market rallying “only” 1,60%, while the XLF index has gained more than 2,00%. So, we can say that the banks are pushing the market higher.

I have no idea of how long this party will be going, so I am placing my bets accordingly. Looking to short SPX futures near the 1135 area or on a breakdown below 1130 (see the chart below). Looking to add on the way down, otherwise will close for a loss.

SPX is continuing forming its rising wedge. To say fair enough, the chances of the sudden rise and the sudden fall are equal. For now I’ll stick with my view of a sudden collapse and will be looking to place short bets at a 1125 – 1135 area (see the chart below). There is also a possible Wyckoff Formation in the making.

GOLD also indicates, that the current rise might be done. See the resisting trend lines above? So, if you are into gold trading, I would suggest to short at 1122-1130.

PS. GOLD and SPX are trading at exactly the same level right now.

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Posted in Market Overview, Potential Setups, Trade Alert, Trade update

Tags: distribution eur/usd gold resistance rising wedge short sale short setup short trade SP 500. spx spx 500 Trade Alert wedge wyckoff formation

Gold and SPX trade update.

December 16th, 2009

GOLD is still trading near its 50% Fibonacci retracement level in a realyl quiet manner. I am still expecting to see a bounce to at least 1170, so if you haven’t read my previous post, then you can jump into the trade right now.

As for SPX futures, it has formed a nice bull flag, and has just broken above the upper trend line trading at 1114 at the moment. I am looking to grab some longs at a pullback to 1111-1112 level.

The throat sighs!

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Posted in Market Overview, Trade Alert, Trade update

Tags: buy support fibonacci gold spx

Buying Stocks here. Update

December 10th, 2009

If you have missed my call yesterday, there has still been some good entry points to get in. Check out the chart below:

Here is a more detailed analysis why 1088-1090 was a good buying point

This is a classical “spring” according to Wyckoff Schematics. To find out whether this was a turning point, I used other tools, like MACD Divergence, which really helps to find possible short term tops and bottoms, and classical pattern recognition – we had a really nice double bottom on 5-min chart. Also, as I have written before, the Double bottoms in GOLD and EUR/USD also indicated a hight potencial in reversal.
This is a 50% Fibonacci retracement level. A good area to add to your longs or to enter a new position.
I am looking for 1107 as a first target. Again, no fancy indicators used. I was thinking of that level as a good target, because it was a previous pivot point. But now I am more confident in this level, as we have Cup and Handle Built, and according to textbooks, the next target equals the high of the Cup. So, in case you have no position right now, you might want to get in for a nice 10 pt. profit.

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Posted in Education, Market Overview, Potential Setups, Trade Alert, Trade update

Tags: buy support eur fibonacci spx support

Market update (9.11.2009)

November 9th, 2009

It is obvious now that we won’t see any Head & Shoulders forming. The pullback is done for now, and the next target is 1020 in SPX. One of the reasons for the current selloff is continues weakness of USD, which may go as low as 1.52.

I personally have exited all longs this morning. Will be looking for any pullback to enter a trade.

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Posted in Market Overview, Trade Alert, Trade update

Tags: eur/usd real trade spx

Flipping long here at 1050

November 5th, 2009

The SPX futures are accelerating to the upside. Exiting here at breakeven and changing my bias to long. First target 1060. Then 1075 may be on cards. We’ll see. One of the reasons of the current strenght overnight is USD weakness.

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Posted in Potential Setups, Trade update

Tags: real trade Trade update

Closing shorts here at 1065

October 26th, 2009

We have traded to as low as 1065, EUR/USD ahs reached 1.4850.That was close enought to my initial call. Right now, I would suggest closing shorts and enteriong small long positions, as the chances of rebound are pretty good, besides this is a good R/R area right here.

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Posted in Potential Setups, Trade Alert, Trade update

Tags: buy support spx support Trade Alert

Selling SPY here at 107.20 (16.09)

September 16th, 2009

Selling another 1/4 of my initial position according to plan at 107.20 (check out my previous post). This makes my average price for the position – 106.50.

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Posted in Market Overview, Trade Alert, Trade update

Tags: real trade short trade spx

SPX Futures Trade Update (04.09.09)

September 4th, 2009

So, here is how my intraday trade looks like (chack out the previous post).

That was a really quick rice from the support area at 1004-1006. Next tough area to take out is 1017-1018. It is a classical support-turned-resistance situation. If the resistance holds, then we will be looking at Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern with the price target at 950-960.

I don’t wont to be a hero here, so when we get to the 1016-1018, I will close my longs.

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Posted in Education, Market Overview, Trade Alert, Trade update

Tags: spx Trade update

Stocks, EUR/USD and GOLD. Weekend observation (29.08.09)

August 29th, 2009

As I have already mentioned in my previous post, we are seeing a major distribution across different sectors – financials, tech, commodities. This process takes awhile, but I expect to see some moves down by the end of next week.

The current price action is very similar to the one we’ve witnessed in the beginning of June (see the chart). If this is the case, we might be looking to some downward action (80-100 points) and another rally to 1150-1200 level by year’s end. But I am only guessing here.

As for EUR/USD, you can see that the trend up is slowing (see numbers 1,2 on the chart) meaning we will break one way or another. I am betting that we are going to 1.4750 at least.

GOLD is the only thing that worries me. It hasn’t shown any signs of weakness, and that symmetrical triangle breakout to the upside looks even more possible than several weeks ago. I guess, we just have to wait and see how it plays out. One possibility is that we’ll get a fake breakdown to 900-910 and then a violent move up.