Trader Tony

SPX, GOLD

tradertony — Mon, 28 Jun 2010 08:01:35 +0000

It looks like SPX is poised to rebound to 1095-1100. After that I would expect the continuation of the downtrend. If you are looking for longer term investments, Gold is offering some pretty amazing buying opportunity. My bold prediction would be a rise of 20% in the next 2 months.

My advice would be to accumulate position in the 1245-1255 range with the stop below 1235. First target on this move would be 1300-1310. After that I expect a minor pullback a another sharp rise to 1450-1500. That should result in formation of a climax top and a sharp reversal.

Why to fade Head & Shoulders.

tradertony — Mon, 28 Jun 2010 07:54:23 +0000

Even though H&S bottom are known, as “reliable chart patterns that sport a low failure rate and good average rise. Performance improves if the pattern appears within a third of the yearly high as opposed to near the yearly low,” I have to disagree. I have noticed lately, that most of the times a potential Head-and-shoulders bottom is formed, it gets faded. Below are some of the examples of such cases:

My conclusion is, that it might be safe to play the bounce from the right shoulder to the neckline, after that I would be extra cautious.

Triple-witching week ahead.

tradertony — Sun, 13 Jun 2010 17:08:07 +0000

The market was a real roller coaster lately. But that’s what traders need, right? After a sharp reversal last week, looking for SPX to rise to 1140. Though, need to see a break above 1108 first. As for the EUR/USD, my target would be 1.2250 before any serious weakness occurs.

SPX Update (8.06)

tradertony — Tue, 08 Jun 2010 15:56:45 +0000

Target 1075 on this move.

Reversal in SPX and EUR/USD

tradertony — Tue, 08 Jun 2010 15:50:41 +0000

Looking for a reversal here to 1075-1080 area. After that another fall down should follow. We may print 1068 as early as today.

Looks like EUR/USD has also put a short term bottom at 1.19. This reversal might take us to 1.2050-1.2070.

Market update 7.10.

tradertony — Sun, 06 Jun 2010 13:12:21 +0000

Looking for 104$ (maybe even 103 sometime intraday) for SPY somatime Monday, Tuesday next week. After that expecting to see a reversal day and a rally to 106.50-107.00 later this week. After some rally looking for another push to 102-101$.

Need to watch MACD for any hints on divergence. Also please note that for this case to be valid, we need to stay below 108$ during trading early next week.

Here is another possibility:

This drop in SPY to ~104$ should coincede with the drop of CLF to 44.00 area. This is where I am planning to take some profits off the table. After that I would be looking for a rebound to ~48$ and then another push lower to 38-39.

Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF)

tradertony — Thu, 03 Jun 2010 18:21:39 +0000

CLF looks like ready to break one way or the other. It is good for at least 15%-20% move from today’s market price. In case of more downside, the target would be 40-45$ in two weeks. Stop at 54$. If we break above 54$, then there is a good chance CLF is going to 60-65$ with the rest of the market. So, in general, no matter which way you chose, metal stocks are offering really good reward.

S&P 500, EUR/USD Projection. 26.05

tradertony — Wed, 26 May 2010 08:52:25 +0000

After a big gap down yesterday in the SPX, the market managed to make all its losses back. This is a positive sign for the bulls. I expect the upside action to continue at least till the end of this week.

After a strong close yesterday, the futures made a little pullback overnight, forming a flag formation. I expect we will hit 1090-1093 today. If that level is taken out, next stop is 1105-1110. I would be cautious at this level, and take some profits off the table. Also place tight stops to protect your profits. For those who are looking to place some short bets, look at mining sector.

EUR/USD is also due to a pullback. First target is 1.2420-1.230.

S&P 500 and EUR/USD Update (24.05)

tradertony — Sat, 22 May 2010 17:47:04 +0000

After a turbulent price action last week, I would be looking for some rebound. Target for SPX 1100-1120 before thinking of re-shorting. Also the fact, that we had a down OPEX week supports this idea.

One of the stocks to consider to play this rebound is ADSK.

The stock is in clear uptrend. It has plenty of support at 27$. My first target would be 31-32. This should coincide with the S&P 500 index at 1100-1120.

The price action for the EUR/USD is not so clear. A lot of uncertainty regarding this pair short term.

Right now the pair is in a clear downtrend (4H chart). If it doesn’t break above 1.26-1.27 come Monday, then it would be a good idea to place a short. First target 1.2430, second – 1.23. If that doesn’t hold, we will eventually see 1.20 soon.

Stock market review 17.05

tradertony — Mon, 17 May 2010 07:45:02 +0000

After the volatile week, the market is at the crossroads right now. Key point is 1123-1113 area.

If we break above 1145, then most likely the market will take out new highs for the year. A breakdown below 1113 will lead to 1070-1060.