CLF looks like ready to break one way or the other. It is good for at least 15%-20% move from today’s market price. In case of more downside, the target would be 40-45$ in two weeks. Stop at 54$. If we break above 54$, then there is a good chance CLF is going to 60-65$ with the rest of the market. So, in general, no matter which way you chose, metal stocks are offering really good reward.
Posts Tagged ‘buy on pullback’
Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF)
June 3rd, 2010
S&P 500, EUR/USD, Oil, Gold
April 5th, 2010There is nothing new to add about the S&P 500, we are going up as planned. The good thing for the bulls is that the April has been the best performing month for the last 5- 10 years. The bad thing is that the party is likely over – the signs of distribution are strong, and with the current hype in the media about the jobs report I also expect retail investors to jump in – this would be the time to get out. I personally will be looking for some shorts after the April options Expiration.
Best sectors to be invested in right now are financials and energy.
I expect turbulence to continue in the EUR/USD currency pair. To save the truth, I was looking for 1.37 this week. It looks like I was dead wrong – even though we’ve had a nice base in the pair, the jobs report has send it below support lines on Friday and the next likely target is 1.34 – 1.3350. See the clear H&S pattern on the 1H chart?
Oil and Gold are definitely on the roll here. I continue to believe the yellow metal is going to 1160$ short term. As for the Black Gold, I expect it to outperform all the other asset classes. My first target is 90$, looking for 100$ by the beginning of the Summer. The price action from the February to June of last year may serve as a guidance.
Stock Market Update.
March 28th, 2010As we have been in the consilidation face all previous week, there is nothing new happening in the market right now. I still believe we will be slowly grinding higher with the occasional pullbacks.
The main levels to look at are 1150 and 20-day SMA. We might get some rise at the beginning of the week, as fund managers will be doing their usual end-of-month window dressing (buying best stocks, selling worst)
Market looks tired, some stocks not.
March 16th, 2010Even though some of the market sectors look tired (tech, financials), there is still plenty of opportunities in the current market. Especially among Basic Material stocks, like the BHP and CHK below.
BHP long term chart suggests that the 82$ area acts like a magnet to the stock. If it is able to hold this pace, we might see 90$ by May Options Expiration.
Another long term bull is CHK. has been trading in a range for more than 6 months. It is a safe bet to buy here with a stop below 24.50 and a targets of 27/30/35.
Stock Market Update.
March 8th, 2010Today was a slow day, as expected. No major news and sideways price action.
In fact some of the stocks I mentioned last week have pulled back a little, and have reached target levels:
ZMH – start accumulating at 59.30-59.70. Stop at 58.20. Target 65.00. 1/5 Risk/Reward.
RINO – has pulled back more than 4%, but has already managed to get into positive territory. Expecting a 50% rise by May.
CHK – buy now at 25.00-25.50. It is a save pick unless it trades below 24.00.
ADY – been burned in this one, but I believe it deserves a second chance. Right now it is stuck between 22 and 21. My strategy would be to buy 1/2 at the current level with the stop below 21. Add to the position when we breakout above 22. Looking for a gap close at 24.
All the resistance has been violated, looking for a test of 1150.
March 5th, 2010All resistance has been broken, the market is continuing higher and my puts have lost half of their value overnight. In other wirds, business as usual.
As I have stated before, today is a break or make day – it will determine the direction for the coming months. And this direction is pointing higher. Maybe we will get some retracement going into next week (I hope we will) but I am not shorting, but just waiting for the long setups.
Here are some potential plays:
CHK – buy 25-26. target 35 by april opex
CALM – buy at 32-33, target 40-42 by april opex
ZMH – buy at 58-60, target 52-week highs.
AIG – buy 27-28, target 33 next week
RINO – pullback to 22. buy. target 27
Use 3% stop loss.
Got the confirmation today. We are going UP.
February 25th, 2010Today I have got the confirmation, I was talking about – the pullback is over for the time being, and the next stop for SPX is 1113 – 1120.
it also looks like EUR/USD has also reached the bottom for awhile. The pullbacks are keeping being bough back, MACD shows divergence.
As for the stocks, we’ve got an ugly opening today, but managed to make it all back. Also, a lot of stocks have closed the day with big gains, erasing the losses for the previous days. One of those stocks is POT.
This is a nice buy here a 110-111, with the stop below 105 and a next weeks target at 122. Short term target is ~116. You may also want trade through ATM Call options, as they offer a better R/R for a trade.
I personally have bough March Calls@110 at 5.05. Stop below today’s low. Looking for 122 next week, though it all depends on tomorrow’s price action. If SPX is not able to break above 1113 I am out of my position.
The correction is likely other. Still need more confirmation.
February 23rd, 2010The weeks has started with a pullback, which is a positive sign in my opinion, as this will help to fuel further rise in the days to come. Currently SPX is sitting at 1090-1095 area, which is a pretty solid support. If the level holds I am looking for 1110-1115 as first target and 1130 as the second target.
In case we don’t hold the support at 1090, this might be a sign of more downside to come near term. Targets on the downside are 1030-1010.
List of Stocks to trade.
February 18th, 2010Here are some interesting possibilities, with 20-30% upside potencial in the Basic Materials Industry:
CDII – buy at 1.55, stop below 1.45. Will be looking for a 100% return in a couple of months.
TIE – this is a real gem, check out the chart below. Looking for >50% return in a couple of months. Buy at 10-11. Stop below 10.40.
ATI – it represents the same chart pattern as TIE, though expected returns are not that exciting. Thus I would suggest buying some 45@March Call Options in this one. Target ~50$ by March Expiration.
Exited Google Options. List of Stocks to trade
February 17th, 2010Exited Google Options for a nice profit yesterday, made back what I have lost in KAZ and then some. Will be looking to buy some Feb@540 options at the pullback (if there is one) at the open today. The catalyst for the pullback might be the gap below and a resistance are at 1105 in SPX
Here is the whole list of long setups for the coming week:
Less risky.
WOOF, ABVT, SHLD, ATI, ADY, GOOG
More Risky
ACAD, AMD, APL, BKM, C, BPCG, CBI, CCOI, DPTR, HOG, INSP, JADE, CNA, JAH, HME, MSO
All the setups are almost the same, the idea is to buy a pullback in the rising stock.
