Posts Tagged ‘buy on pullback’

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Back to options trading. Trader Tony LOVES Google!

February 11th, 2010

Well, I guess, trading small cap stocks isn’t just for me. It is not just because of the big hit I took on KAZ (I have lost -13% in that trade). I guess the mane reason is the lack of liquidity and the need to be patient. And by patient. I mean – really patient.

For most of the people that would be the best way to invest in the markets – you research fundamentals, you dig for information, you compare long-term charts and competition, and then you make the move. You invest in several companies with the idea to hold this positions, at least 4-6 months.

For me, as a trader, this route doesn’t work – my capital is my working tool, and I cannot afford stash it away for half of the year.

So, now I am back to trading options, which are great tools to achieve higher return with well managed risk.

The chart below indicates, that the pullback we witnessed for the past 2 weeks may well be over, and some kind of rebound is going to happen soon. And by buying 3  Google Calls@Feb for 1.98$ I am betting that it has already started.

My stop is below 525$. My Targets are 550 and 570 (gap close)

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Game Plan for the next few days. SPX projection.

February 2nd, 2010

Looking for this reversal to be stalled somewhere between 1101 and 1105. Then expecting a pullback, where I would be lookiing for entering longs. The ideal area would be ~1095. Target for the next leg up would be 1118-1120.

Ultimate target would be 1130, which is a exactly 25 pts. from the 1105 resistance area.

Some things to watch out:

  1. Support at 1095 and 1085-1090 must hold for the trend to continue higher.
  2. EUR is still relatively weak, even though it has gained some ground against the USD.
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The list of potential plays. Update.

January 27th, 2010

This is the update of the list of potential plays from the last week.

With the current pullback in the stock market, most of the companies have reached buying levels. Others have breached below their support levels and headed lower and some have already reached their targets.

The most remarkable calls were in CPE and DSPG. Check out the charts:

The DSPG stock has made a pullback right to the entry point at 5.80 and then reversed all the way to 7$. It looks like it has some steam left. My target would be 7.75 before any rebound.

CPE has risen more than 40% since my call.

Here is the list of the remaining stocks to watch this week:

NTRI
TRA
AGU
TSO
VLO
PETD
ALY
OMNI
CFW
NGAS
WNR

Here is another stock similar to CPE:
KAZ - a US registered company ingaged in oil production and exploration in Kazakhstan. BMB Munai operates under its wholly owned subsidiary Emir Oil. The company is engaged in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas. The Aksaz, Dolinnoe, and Emir oil and gas fields in western Kazakhstan serve as the primary areas for exploration and development. It transports oil and gas via rail, barge, and pipeline through Russian territory.

Although the stock is losing its steam and there is no follow through in price, it is strong fundamentilly. With the market Cap. of ~60$ mil. it has 250$ mil. of proven oil and gas reserves.

I have gone long at 1.20$ and planning to hold this one forawhile. Next week they will aanounce their 3rd quarter results, that should be interesting.

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Posted in Education, Investing Ideas, Potential Setups, Trade update

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The list of potential plays.

January 22nd, 2010

Rebound Plays
CLF- accumulate at 40-45. Should be above 55 if market holds.
NTRI- buy at ~22. target 27.
TRA – buy at 33. stop below 32.
AGU – buy 60-55
MOS – buy at 55.
APL – buy at 9$ or near 200ema.
LDL – buy at 6.50. Stop below 6. Target 8.

Breakout plays.
MINI – buy at ~15. add above 15.50. target 18-19
TSO – symm. triangle, buy above 15
VLO – 200ema acts as resistance. Buy when stock closes above it.

For those of you who are able to stomach big swings. Here is a list of Micro Cap Stocks with interesting formations.

Micro Cap. Trading at 5$
XTEX – pullback to 6-7 to buy
PETD – buy above 20. targets 23-25
BBEP – buy at 200ema
PKOH – buy at 6.50
FTBK – buy at 4.0-4.5
ALY – buy at 4. Target 6.
WNR – buy at 5. Target 7.
DSPG – buy at 5.80. Target 7$

Micro Caps. Trading Below 5$
KAZ – buy at 1.30.target 2.5
CPE – buy at a pullback to 1.7. stop at 1.5. target 4-5 (huge gap in that area)
CFW – symm. triangle. buy at 0.90. target 2-2.50
NGAS – buy at 1.6. target 3.5
OMNI – buy above 1.75. Traget 2.75

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Uptrend is still intact. For how long?

December 20th, 2009

For the past month, we have been trading in a tight 30 pts. range in the SPX, while getting a pretty violent reversal in EUR/USD. This is the clear indication, that some sort of pullback is looming in the S&P 500 index. I personally still tend to believe, that there will be one last rise to the 1130-1140 area followed by the sharp reversal in the mid January.

eur.usd 20.12spx 20.12As for the next week, I am looking for longs. The sharp sell off in the EUR is also indicates a high possibility of a rebound. My target on the pair would be ~1.47.

Also GOLD may have also finally found support at 1090-1100 with a strong positive divergence in MACD and a double bottom pattern on a 30-min. chart. This is a pretty safe play, with the target 1150-1160 and a stop loss of 10-15 pts.

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Market Update (20.07)

July 20th, 2009

Even though the market looks toppish right now and everyone expects it to fall, the history shows that the market does what no one is expecting. I believe this is the case with the stocks in the coming weeks. Even though, we have rallied quite significantly from the 870-880 area (see my previous post) there is more room to go. Only this time, the main driving force will consist of crowd buyers. short sellers who urge to cover and some bogus positive news. that will fuel this rally. But what do we care? We are here to make money. so just follow the trend!

spx-20-7

After a possible pullback to 930-940 (if we get there) I believe we are going to 960-970. If we get this pullback. I would advice to buy heavily. Though, I highly doubt we will. The only pullback we might get, would be 5 pts. max during night session and then the rally continues.

ndx-20-7

NASDAQ looks much more overbought, so we might see 20-30 points pullback here. if you are already long, there is really no need to do anything but wait.

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Posted in Market Overview, Potential Setups, Trade Alert

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