Trader Tony » buy support

Stock Market Update.

tradertony — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 20:37:56 +0000

Today was a slow day, as expected. No major news and sideways price action.

In fact some of the stocks I mentioned last week have pulled back a little, and have reached target levels:

ZMH – start accumulating at 59.30-59.70. Stop at 58.20. Target 65.00. 1/5 Risk/Reward.

RINO – has pulled back more than 4%, but has already managed to get into positive territory. Expecting a 50% rise by May.

CHK – buy now at 25.00-25.50. It is a save pick unless it trades below 24.00.

ADY – been burned in this one, but I believe it deserves a second chance. Right now it is stuck between 22 and 21. My strategy would be to buy 1/2 at the current level with the stop below 21. Add to the position when we breakout above 22. Looking for a gap close at 24.

All the resistance has been violated, looking for a test of 1150.

tradertony — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 19:58:10 +0000

All resistance has been broken, the market is continuing higher and my puts have lost half of their value overnight. In other wirds, business as usual.

As I have stated before, today is a break or make day – it will determine the direction for the coming months. And this direction is pointing higher. Maybe we will get some retracement going into next week (I hope we will) but I am not shorting, but just waiting for the long setups.

Here are some potential plays:

CHK – buy 25-26. target 35 by april opex
CALM – buy at 32-33, target 40-42 by april opex
ZMH – buy at 58-60, target 52-week highs.
AIG – buy 27-28, target 33 next week
RINO – pullback to 22. buy. target 27

Use 3% stop loss.

Got the confirmation today. We are going UP.

tradertony — Thu, 25 Feb 2010 22:27:38 +0000

Today I have got the confirmation, I was talking about – the pullback is over for the time being, and the next stop for SPX is 1113 – 1120.

it also looks like EUR/USD has also reached the bottom for awhile. The pullbacks are keeping being bough back, MACD shows divergence.

As for the stocks, we’ve got an ugly opening today, but managed to make it all back. Also, a lot of stocks have closed the day with big gains, erasing the losses for the previous days. One of those stocks is POT.

This is a nice buy here a 110-111, with the stop below 105 and a next weeks target at 122. Short term target is ~116. You may also want trade through ATM Call options, as they offer a better R/R for a trade.

I personally have bough March Calls@110 at 5.05. Stop below today’s low. Looking for 122 next week, though it all depends on tomorrow’s price action. If SPX is not able to break above 1113 I am out of my position.

Buy Gold. Target 1155-1060

tradertony — Thu, 18 Feb 2010 11:45:18 +0000

Looking for Gold to hit 1155-1060 in a couple of week’s time. Buy here at 1105, stop below 1095. Nice 1/5 Risk/Reward trade.

Exited Google Options. List of Stocks to trade

tradertony — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 12:56:59 +0000

Exited Google Options for a nice profit yesterday, made back what I have lost in KAZ and then some. Will be looking to buy some Feb@540 options at the pullback (if there is one) at the open today. The catalyst for the pullback might be the gap below and a resistance are at 1105 in SPX

Here is the whole list of long setups for the coming week:

Less risky.

WOOF, ABVT, SHLD, ATI, ADY, GOOG

More Risky
ACAD, AMD, APL, BKM, C, BPCG, CBI, CCOI, DPTR, HOG, INSP, JADE, CNA, JAH, HME, MSO

All the setups are almost the same, the idea is to buy a pullback in the rising stock.

Back to options trading. Trader Tony LOVES Google!

tradertony — Thu, 11 Feb 2010 18:52:08 +0000

Well, I guess, trading small cap stocks isn’t just for me. It is not just because of the big hit I took on KAZ (I have lost -13% in that trade). I guess the mane reason is the lack of liquidity and the need to be patient. And by patient. I mean – really patient.

For most of the people that would be the best way to invest in the markets – you research fundamentals, you dig for information, you compare long-term charts and competition, and then you make the move. You invest in several companies with the idea to hold this positions, at least 4-6 months.

For me, as a trader, this route doesn’t work – my capital is my working tool, and I cannot afford stash it away for half of the year.

So, now I am back to trading options, which are great tools to achieve higher return with well managed risk.

The chart below indicates, that the pullback we witnessed for the past 2 weeks may well be over, and some kind of rebound is going to happen soon. And by buying 3 Google Calls@Feb for 1.98$ I am betting that it has already started.

My stop is below 525$. My Targets are 550 and 570 (gap close)

Game Plan for the next few days. SPX projection.

tradertony — Tue, 02 Feb 2010 19:24:35 +0000

Looking for this reversal to be stalled somewhere between 1101 and 1105. Then expecting a pullback, where I would be lookiing for entering longs. The ideal area would be ~1095. Target for the next leg up would be 1118-1120.

Ultimate target would be 1130, which is a exactly 25 pts. from the 1105 resistance area.

Some things to watch out:

Support at 1095 and 1085-1090 must hold for the trend to continue higher.
EUR is still relatively weak, even though it has gained some ground against the USD.

The list of potential plays. Update.

tradertony — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 22:35:10 +0000

This is the update of the list of potential plays from the last week.

With the current pullback in the stock market, most of the companies have reached buying levels. Others have breached below their support levels and headed lower and some have already reached their targets.

The most remarkable calls were in CPE and DSPG. Check out the charts:

The DSPG stock has made a pullback right to the entry point at 5.80 and then reversed all the way to 7$. It looks like it has some steam left. My target would be 7.75 before any rebound.

CPE has risen more than 40% since my call.

Here is the list of the remaining stocks to watch this week:

NTRI
TRA
AGU
TSO
VLO
PETD
ALY
OMNI
CFW
NGAS
WNR

Here is another stock similar to CPE:
KAZ - a US registered company ingaged in oil production and exploration in Kazakhstan. BMB Munai operates under its wholly owned subsidiary Emir Oil. The company is engaged in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas. The Aksaz, Dolinnoe, and Emir oil and gas fields in western Kazakhstan serve as the primary areas for exploration and development. It transports oil and gas via rail, barge, and pipeline through Russian territory.

Although the stock is losing its steam and there is no follow through in price, it is strong fundamentilly. With the market Cap. of ~60$ mil. it has 250$ mil. of proven oil and gas reserves.

I have gone long at 1.20$ and planning to hold this one forawhile. Next week they will aanounce their 3rd quarter results, that should be interesting.

Stock market projection for January 2010

tradertony — Wed, 20 Jan 2010 10:09:28 +0000

It looks like, we’ve stuck in another range, as it was in November – mid December. Only this time it’s only 20 pts. wide. In fact the volatility has dropped so much in the past several months, that most traders, who were used to turbulent 2008-2009, are finding it difficult right now.

Still, there is plenty of opportunities out there, especially among individual stocks. I will post a list of most interesting ones later this week.

As for now, here is my view on the market. It looks like the market is straggling to make new highs, every 20-30 point move is met with the 20 point sell off. Though, we haven’t sold off yet. This makes me thinking, that we won’t, at least in the near term. Someone wants it to hold, and every pullback of 20-30 points is bought back. Also, all major resistance lines have been broken, opening more room to the upside. This are all indicators that we are going higher longer term.

The general rule is, that after a strong up day, similar to the one we saw yesterday, there is usually a continuation rally the following day. So, Right now, 1140-1142 offers a nice support level. Buying here with the 5 pt. stop is a good R/R trade. My target would be at ~1210. If a breakdown below 1128 occurs, I would have to change my view on the future direction.

As always, we need to remain cautios, as at this point relentless buying is just not worth. As the indexes don’t offer much of reward right now, it may be usefull to turn your attention to individual stocks.

What to look for in equity, currency and gold markets in year 2010.

tradertony — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 10:24:31 +0000

This is the last post for the year. The price action for the last month indicates, that equities and currencies are not moving in the tandem as they used to. Despite the rise in the USD, equities were able to add more to their gains. So, my target of 1130-1140 has been reached. Now I am at the crossroads, as some indicators are pointing to a pullback in January, while others for a more run and bump price action to come.

The above chart of SPX indicates, that the rising trend we have witnessed since March, is losing its pace. The only thing that might help this thing to go higher is a violent buying, as one we’ve seen in July. Right now, nothing suggests that this is going to happen, in fact the there are good chances that we might see 1080 by the end of January. Using Wyckoff Schematics, I have 1030 as my second target. This is nothing outrageous, as 9-10% pull back would be healthy for this market. Though there are some things that suggest, that bull is not dead yet.

The first bullish indicator is XLF. Financials have been lagging during the latest rally but the chart below indicates that they have finally found solid support and have a good chance of rising as high as 15.50-15.75. This is actually a pretty save play, as you can buy at 14.40-14.50 and place a stop below 14.20, giving you a nice R/R.

It may sound odd though, but XLF is also the sector that may trigger the reversal of the broader market. In this case we need to watch 14.40-14.00 area losely, as a drop below 14.00 might lead to a sharp selloff.

Other indicators of the reversal are GOLD and EUR/USD.

To support the bear’s case, EUR/USD must stay below 1.4480-1.45. To get more confirmation, I would like to see 1.4070-1.4050 by mid January.

The same thing is about GOLD price action, as long as it is below 1110-1115 price tag.

So, all in all this makes me a cautious bear, as the chances of another run and bump action in SPX are strong. Who knows, maybe the big layers, have dumped EURs, just to accelerate the rise in equities later? I don’t know that, so as a trader the safest option is to trade what I see… But HEY, enough of this, there will be a lot of trading days going forward, as for now: