Posts Tagged ‘buy support’

Uptrend is still intact. For how long?

December 20th, 2009

For the past month, we have been trading in a tight 30 pts. range in the SPX, while getting a pretty violent reversal in EUR/USD. This is the clear indication, that some sort of pullback is looming in the S&P 500 index. I personally still tend to believe, that there will be one last rise to the 1130-1140 area followed by the sharp reversal in the mid January.

eur.usd 20.12spx 20.12As for the next week, I am looking for longs. The sharp sell off in the EUR is also indicates a high possibility of a rebound. My target on the pair would be ~1.47.

Also GOLD may have also finally found support at 1090-1100 with a strong positive divergence in MACD and a double bottom pattern on a 30-min. chart. This is a pretty safe play, with the target 1150-1160 and a stop loss of 10-15 pts.

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Gold and SPX trade update.

December 16th, 2009

gold2 12.16gold 12.16GOLD is still trading near its 50% Fibonacci retracement level in a realyl quiet manner. I am still expecting to see a bounce to at least 1170, so if you haven’t read my previous post, then you can jump into the trade right now.

As for SPX futures, it has formed a nice bull flag, and has just broken above the upper trend line trading at 1114 at the moment. I am looking to grab some longs at a pullback to 1111-1112 level.

The throat sighs!

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Use of multiple timeframes when trading.

December 14th, 2009

We often see a lot of arguing what time frame to use while trading, some insist on using short term charts, while others suggest that short term price movements is just a noise and can’t be relied on. Although it depends on the strategy, whether you are a scalper or a swing trade, the combination of several time frames is still the best option of all. The reason for that is easy – while the longer time frames help you to determine the direction of the main trend, and major support resistance levels, the 1- or 5- minute charts will help you find the best entry point.

Here is an example with EUR/USD pair:

Even though the medium term chart has turned bearish, in the longer term we are still in the bull mode. So, you decide to go long EUR at some point. So, you start the analysis with a 4- and 1-hour charts.4

3

On the chart above you see the first signs of a possible turnaround – a MACD divergence and that the price is testing resistance point. Being an experienced trader, you understand that if the price breaks above the resistance at 1.4680, then according to Wyckoff Schematics it can run as high as 1.4900. So, you don’t want to miss the train. You start looking for an entry point with the best Risk/Reward ratio and zoom to the 15-minute time frame.

1

The 15-minute shows us that a reversal is highly possible, and in fact the price has already tested the resistance at 1.48. Now it has pulled back to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, making 1.4650 a perfect spot to enter a long trade with a good R/R ratio.

2

The last step is enter the trade. For that you zoom to 1-minute chart and place a buy order somewere between 1.4652 – 1.4647. Then you place a tight stop of 15 pts.

The trade above has not only great R/R potential, bu it is also a stress free one:

  • You know that your odds of winning are high.
  • You have a predetermined stop in place, which protects you from further losses in case things go wrong.
  • This short term trade has a potential to become a swing trade with more than 1/10 Risk/Reward ratio.

In conclusion, I’d like to add that this is the type of trades you want to make each time – stress free, with high reward potencial. There is no need to rush in every trade you see, just be pacient enought to look for the best ones, and you’ll see your account growing expotencially.

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GOLD is a BUY at current levels

December 10th, 2009
gold-10-12

Finally, after unstoppable rise up the GOLD has retraced to the more reasonable levels. Right now we are trading right at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and any weakness in USD will spark a huge buying interest in GOLD. My suggestion is to start accumulating GOLD at 1110-1130 levels. Place stop below 1100 (NB! use position management carefully) and a target at 1250.

If you are trading stokcs and ETFs, then buying DGP at 28.00-28.50 is a good bet. 1st Target 30.00-30.50 (I would personally exit 1/2 there and let the rest ride). Stop belwo 27.50.

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Buying Stocks here. Update

December 10th, 2009

If you have missed my call yesterday, there has still been some good entry points to get in. Check out the chart below:

spx-10-12

Here is a more detailed analysis why 1088-1090 was a good buying point

  1. This is a classical “spring” according to Wyckoff Schematics. To find out whether this was a turning point, I used other tools, like MACD Divergence, which really helps to find possible short term tops and bottoms, and classical pattern recognition – we had a really nice double bottom on 5-min chart. Also, as I have written before, the Double bottoms in GOLD and EUR/USD also indicated a hight potencial in reversal.
  2. This is a 50% Fibonacci retracement level. A good area to add to your longs or to enter a new position.
  3. I am looking for 1107 as a first target. Again, no fancy indicators used. I was thinking of that level as a good target, because it was a previous pivot point. But now I am more confident in this level, as we have Cup and Handle Built, and according to textbooks, the next target equals the high of the Cup. So, in case you have no position right now, you might want to get in for a nice 10 pt. profit.
spx1-10-12
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Buying Stocks here.

December 9th, 2009

Due to the current divergence in both GOLD and EUR/USD, and the current support levels, looking for a rise in SPX to at least 1098. If we breach that level, then there is a good chance we will take out the 52-week highs. Just check out the chart below:

spx-9-12

This looks like a possible Wyckoff Schematics in the making, in which case the latest 2-hour bar on the chart is the “Spring” (Check out my post about Wyckoff Schematics to find more). Though, we steel need to break above 1100 for this to be true.

My advice is to buy 1/2 of your initial position right now with a 5 pt. stop and add above 1100. Also, watch EUR/USD for hints any hins.

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EUR/USD direction for December

December 3rd, 2009
eur-usd-3-12

EUR/USD is due for another rise. Every resistance has been broken, and despite the slowing pace, we are still a uptrend. Right now I would be looking for pullback to 1.5070-1.5150 and another push higher after that. My target is 1.5300 at least. This will also coinsede with the rise in the S&P index.

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Stock Market direction in December

December 3rd, 2009

The latest whipsaw price action has caught many traders off guard. This indicates that the distribution is going in full scale. The question is, how big are the positions, the big IB have to unload. In case, the positions are very big, they would need more players to unload to. And the only way to involve more players is to make another squeeze to the upside.

spx1-3-12 spx2-3-12

Even though, the price indicates, that the top might be in, MACD and Volume are saying we might have another push higher. Also we need to factor in Seasonal factors and continued EUR/USD weakness.

So, right now, I would be looking for the last push lower to the 1095-1100 level to close the gap. This is a good area to start accumulating longs (Divergence and Classical Patterns might help to chose the right entry point). From there on, I would be looking to a traditional yer-end rally to 1140-1150 area.

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Buy SPX here. Target 1070-1075

November 3rd, 2009

I would suggest that a market is a buy right now. The possible bounce might be good for at least 35-40 pts.

The main reason for the bounce is a possible Inverse Head & Shoulders and MACD divergence on 1 hour chart. My advice is to buy here with 1/2 of your regular size and a 5 pts. stop at 1032 – 1038.

Will post a chart later today.

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Closing shorts here at 1065

October 26th, 2009

We have traded to as low as 1065, EUR/USD ahs reached 1.4850.That was close enought to my initial call. Right now, I would suggest closing shorts and enteriong small long positions, as the chances of rebound are pretty good, besides this is a good R/R area right here.

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