Trader Tony » eur/usd

Triple-witching week ahead.

tradertony — Sun, 13 Jun 2010 17:08:07 +0000

The market was a real roller coaster lately. But that’s what traders need, right? After a sharp reversal last week, looking for SPX to rise to 1140. Though, need to see a break above 1108 first. As for the EUR/USD, my target would be 1.2250 before any serious weakness occurs.

Reversal in SPX and EUR/USD

tradertony — Tue, 08 Jun 2010 15:50:41 +0000

Looking for a reversal here to 1075-1080 area. After that another fall down should follow. We may print 1068 as early as today.

Looks like EUR/USD has also put a short term bottom at 1.19. This reversal might take us to 1.2050-1.2070.

S&P 500, EUR/USD Projection. 26.05

tradertony — Wed, 26 May 2010 08:52:25 +0000

After a big gap down yesterday in the SPX, the market managed to make all its losses back. This is a positive sign for the bulls. I expect the upside action to continue at least till the end of this week.

After a strong close yesterday, the futures made a little pullback overnight, forming a flag formation. I expect we will hit 1090-1093 today. If that level is taken out, next stop is 1105-1110. I would be cautious at this level, and take some profits off the table. Also place tight stops to protect your profits. For those who are looking to place some short bets, look at mining sector.

EUR/USD is also due to a pullback. First target is 1.2420-1.230.

S&P 500 and EUR/USD Update (24.05)

tradertony — Sat, 22 May 2010 17:47:04 +0000

After a turbulent price action last week, I would be looking for some rebound. Target for SPX 1100-1120 before thinking of re-shorting. Also the fact, that we had a down OPEX week supports this idea.

One of the stocks to consider to play this rebound is ADSK.

The stock is in clear uptrend. It has plenty of support at 27$. My first target would be 31-32. This should coincide with the S&P 500 index at 1100-1120.

The price action for the EUR/USD is not so clear. A lot of uncertainty regarding this pair short term.

Right now the pair is in a clear downtrend (4H chart). If it doesn’t break above 1.26-1.27 come Monday, then it would be a good idea to place a short. First target 1.2430, second – 1.23. If that doesn’t hold, we will eventually see 1.20 soon.

S&P 500, EUR/USD, Oil, Gold

tradertony — Mon, 05 Apr 2010 06:28:56 +0000

There is nothing new to add about the S&P 500, we are going up as planned. The good thing for the bulls is that the April has been the best performing month for the last 5- 10 years. The bad thing is that the party is likely over – the signs of distribution are strong, and with the current hype in the media about the jobs report I also expect retail investors to jump in – this would be the time to get out. I personally will be looking for some shorts after the April options Expiration.

Best sectors to be invested in right now are financials and energy.

I expect turbulence to continue in the EUR/USD currency pair. To save the truth, I was looking for 1.37 this week. It looks like I was dead wrong – even though we’ve had a nice base in the pair, the jobs report has send it below support lines on Friday and the next likely target is 1.34 – 1.3350. See the clear H&S pattern on the 1H chart?

Oil and Gold are definitely on the roll here. I continue to believe the yellow metal is going to 1160$ short term. As for the Black Gold, I expect it to outperform all the other asset classes. My first target is 90$, looking for 100$ by the beginning of the Summer. The price action from the February to June of last year may serve as a guidance.

Currencies Update

tradertony — Sun, 28 Mar 2010 18:29:16 +0000

The last week was marked by the continuation of the dollar’s strenght. Will the trend continue? Below are some charts of the major currencies. They suggest, that we might see some correction in the EUR/USD at the beginning and then the continuation of the downtrend. Anyway, the coming week will represent some great short setups for the pair.

Also, GPB/EUR looks quite interesting. It is forming a symmetrycal triangle, ready to breakout to the upside. If that happens, chanses are, we will see much lower levels in GBP. So, watch this closely for setups.

Stock Market Update.

tradertony — Sat, 13 Mar 2010 18:43:26 +0000

Despite all the sceptincs there is still up room to go for this stock market. The current rise won’t stop until someone who is propping it up will stop doing this. The past week was inline with my analysis. We have got a small reversal in the nightsession on Monday on ES, then continued sideways-higher all week.

The next week is Option Expiration week. Looking for some consolidation in 1160-1140 area. After that another push higher going into April. The major support is now at 1130, so until this one is taken out, the bullish case is alive and well.

EUR/USD is also stuck in the channel. It is finally braking out from the 1.3750-1.3450 zone, where we have been stuck for a month. I would be looking for a small pullback here at the beginning of the week. Then another push into 1.39, maybe 1.40.

Longer term charts suggest that the possible target for this coming reversal is 1.42, after that we will move back down. Though, this is just a pure speculation at this point.

EUR/USD Update.

tradertony — Wed, 03 Mar 2010 12:04:21 +0000

1st Resistance at 1.3490. If broken, traget 1.3820. The chart below shows that we are still stuck in a channel.

Dangerous formation for EUR bears.

tradertony — Tue, 02 Mar 2010 11:34:52 +0000

EUR/USD is looking interesting here. If the area at 1.3450-13550 holds today, I expect to see 1.38 and then 1.40 in a couple of weeks. Right now it looks like a Wyckoff Formation in the making. MACD divergence also confirms this theory.

Got the confirmation today. We are going UP.

tradertony — Thu, 25 Feb 2010 22:27:38 +0000

Today I have got the confirmation, I was talking about – the pullback is over for the time being, and the next stop for SPX is 1113 – 1120.

it also looks like EUR/USD has also reached the bottom for awhile. The pullbacks are keeping being bough back, MACD shows divergence.

As for the stocks, we’ve got an ugly opening today, but managed to make it all back. Also, a lot of stocks have closed the day with big gains, erasing the losses for the previous days. One of those stocks is POT.

This is a nice buy here a 110-111, with the stop below 105 and a next weeks target at 122. Short term target is ~116. You may also want trade through ATM Call options, as they offer a better R/R for a trade.

I personally have bough March Calls@110 at 5.05. Stop below today’s low. Looking for 122 next week, though it all depends on tomorrow’s price action. If SPX is not able to break above 1113 I am out of my position.