The market was a real roller coaster lately. But that’s what traders need, right? After a sharp reversal last week, looking for SPX to rise to 1140. Though, need to see a break above 1108 first. As for the EUR/USD, my target would be 1.2250 before any serious weakness occurs.
Posts Tagged ‘Market Overview’
Triple-witching week ahead.
June 13th, 2010
S&P 500, EUR/USD Projection. 26.05
May 26th, 2010After a big gap down yesterday in the SPX, the market managed to make all its losses back. This is a positive sign for the bulls. I expect the upside action to continue at least till the end of this week.
After a strong close yesterday, the futures made a little pullback overnight, forming a flag formation. I expect we will hit 1090-1093 today. If that level is taken out, next stop is 1105-1110. I would be cautious at this level, and take some profits off the table. Also place tight stops to protect your profits. For those who are looking to place some short bets, look at mining sector.
EUR/USD is also due to a pullback. First target is 1.2420-1.230.
S&P 500 and EUR/USD Update (24.05)
May 22nd, 2010After a turbulent price action last week, I would be looking for some rebound. Target for SPX 1100-1120 before thinking of re-shorting. Also the fact, that we had a down OPEX week supports this idea.
One of the stocks to consider to play this rebound is ADSK.
The stock is in clear uptrend. It has plenty of support at 27$. My first target would be 31-32. This should coincide with the S&P 500 index at 1100-1120.
The price action for the EUR/USD is not so clear. A lot of uncertainty regarding this pair short term.
Right now the pair is in a clear downtrend (4H chart). If it doesn’t break above 1.26-1.27 come Monday, then it would be a good idea to place a short. First target 1.2430, second – 1.23. If that doesn’t hold, we will eventually see 1.20 soon.
Stock market review 17.05
May 17th, 2010After the volatile week, the market is at the crossroads right now. Key point is 1123-1113 area.
If we break above 1145, then most likely the market will take out new highs for the year. A breakdown below 1113 will lead to 1070-1060.
Stock market update.
May 7th, 2010If this analysis was not spot on, I don’t know what is.
We have got to 1200 by April OPEX, and now we are tumbling heavily. To be honest, I was not sure, that this is going to happen so soon. But here we are – all the gains for 2010 are erased, panic selling everywhere, VIX skyrocketed, investors are scared and don’t know what to expect next.
Guess what happens next couple of weeks?
We are going higher. That is right. I believe we should test 1150 a least, maybe will go as high as 1170. This volatility is great for a skilled trader. For an average investor it is really a mess, so if you are not comfortable trading here – I would suggest reducing you position size.
Check out this echo from 2007 for more clues:
Stock Market Update.
March 28th, 2010As we have been in the consilidation face all previous week, there is nothing new happening in the market right now. I still believe we will be slowly grinding higher with the occasional pullbacks.
The main levels to look at are 1150 and 20-day SMA. We might get some rise at the beginning of the week, as fund managers will be doing their usual end-of-month window dressing (buying best stocks, selling worst)
Stock Market Update.
March 13th, 2010
Despite all the sceptincs there is still up room to go for this stock market. The current rise won’t stop until someone who is propping it up will stop doing this. The past week was inline with my analysis. We have got a small reversal in the nightsession on Monday on ES, then continued sideways-higher all week.
The next week is Option Expiration week. Looking for some consolidation in 1160-1140 area. After that another push higher going into April. The major support is now at 1130, so until this one is taken out, the bullish case is alive and well.
EUR/USD is also stuck in the channel. It is finally braking out from the 1.3750-1.3450 zone, where we have been stuck for a month. I would be looking for a small pullback here at the beginning of the week. Then another push into 1.39, maybe 1.40.
Longer term charts suggest that the possible target for this coming reversal is 1.42, after that we will move back down. Though, this is just a pure speculation at this point.
Stock Market Update. Another comparison.
March 10th, 2010
Market is in consolidation mode as projected. Compare the current price action with the one which took place 3 years ago.
After a consolidation (the like we are witnessing today), the market continued higher, even though the indicators suggested it was way overbought.
Stock Market Update.
March 8th, 2010Today was a slow day, as expected. No major news and sideways price action.
In fact some of the stocks I mentioned last week have pulled back a little, and have reached target levels:
ZMH – start accumulating at 59.30-59.70. Stop at 58.20. Target 65.00. 1/5 Risk/Reward.
RINO – has pulled back more than 4%, but has already managed to get into positive territory. Expecting a 50% rise by May.
CHK – buy now at 25.00-25.50. It is a save pick unless it trades below 24.00.
ADY – been burned in this one, but I believe it deserves a second chance. Right now it is stuck between 22 and 21. My strategy would be to buy 1/2 at the current level with the stop below 21. Add to the position when we breakout above 22. Looking for a gap close at 24.
Stock Market Overview.
March 7th, 2010
Short term view on the market. Areas to watch closely – 1130 and 1115. Expecting to see some pullback next wee, but not more than 1-2% from Friday close. Then a rise further continues. I would personally like to see some base building before we approach 1150. 
This is a longer term chart for SPX going back to August 2006. Look how the both circled areas look alike. If we use comparison analysis, we should get to 1200 by April Options Expiration. Then some sideways action is possible, as there is a ton of resistance above 1200 area. Though we might get as high as 1230-1250. I am really clueless, what happens next, maybe “sell in May and go away” will be the thing to do this year. We will see.
For the time being I am bullish on the market, unless we sell off below 1105/1085 in the next 2 weeks. If that happens, I will reevaluate my longer term view.
