Posts Tagged ‘Market Overview’

2007 and 2010 comparison.

March 4th, 2010

Compare the following two charts from the past and the future. It will be interesting to see whether History repeats itself or not.

The chart from December 2007.

The recent price action.

Tomorrow the Nonfarm Numbers will be announced. I have no idea, whether we will sell off, or gap up higher (I would liek to see gap down and then gap close and beyond). Though I am betting we will close lower this time next week.

Bailed out of my GS puts for a loss, switched to longs, closed those for a small profit. Bough AAPL puts for a gamble.

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SPX Update. Vacuum up to 1128-1130 area.

March 2nd, 2010

Markets kept going up slowly during yesterday’s trading session. We are now right below the resistance. should a breakout occur on Tuesday, we are going to 1130.

If there is now breakout today, I would be looking for a pullback to 1105. After that it’s anyone’s guess, what will happen next – a break up to 1130 and possibility of 1150, or a breakdown to 1080-1085.

Here is also a Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) chart below. It suggest that there is a lot of Vacuum in the 15 pt. range right above us. So, should the move up happen, it will be FAST.

Still holding my GS puts, as the stock remains under severe pressure.

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Remaining cautious here.

February 27th, 2010

With the SPX being unable to take out overnight high at 1108, and not reaching my target of 1113, I have closed POT Calls for a loss. Don’t have any position at the moment – will wait till the sideways action resolves one way or the other. The market is currently stuck in a 10 pt. range, the breakout above 1108 will resume the uptrend, the breakdown below 1098 will resume downtrend.

My potential long would be POT, potential short is GS.

Have a nice weekend.

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Got the confirmation today. We are going UP.

February 25th, 2010

Today I have got the confirmation, I was talking about – the pullback is over for the time being, and the next stop for SPX is 1113 – 1120.

it also looks like EUR/USD has also reached the bottom for awhile. The pullbacks are keeping being bough back, MACD shows divergence.

As for the stocks, we’ve got an ugly opening today, but managed to make it all back. Also, a lot of stocks have closed the day with big gains, erasing the losses for the previous days. One of those stocks is POT.

This is a nice buy here a 110-111, with the stop below 105 and a next weeks target at 122. Short term target is ~116. You may also want trade through ATM Call options, as they offer a better R/R for a trade.

I personally have bough March Calls@110 at 5.05. Stop below today’s low. Looking for 122 next week, though it all depends on tomorrow’s price action. If SPX is not able to break above 1113 I am out of my position.

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The correction is likely other. Still need more confirmation.

February 23rd, 2010

The weeks has started with a pullback, which is a positive sign in my opinion, as this will help to fuel further rise in the days to come. Currently SPX is sitting at 1090-1095 area, which is a pretty solid support. If the level holds I am looking for 1110-1115 as first target and 1130 as the second target.

In case we don’t hold the support at 1090, this might be a sign of more downside to come near term. Targets on the downside are 1030-1010.

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Exited Google Options. List of Stocks to trade

February 17th, 2010

Exited Google Options for a nice profit yesterday, made back what I have lost in KAZ and then some. Will be looking to buy some Feb@540 options at the pullback (if there is one) at the open today. The catalyst for the pullback might be the gap below and a resistance are at 1105 in SPX

Here is the whole list of long setups for the coming week:

Less risky.

WOOF, ABVT, SHLD, ATI, ADY, GOOG

More Risky
ACAD, AMD, APL, BKM, C, BPCG, CBI, CCOI, DPTR, HOG, INSP, JADE, CNA, JAH, HME, MSO

All the setups are almost the same, the idea is to buy a pullback in the rising stock.

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Google Trade Update

February 15th, 2010

Still holding the options I bough. Looking for 570$ to be hit this week.

Looking for 1100 in SPX by Tuesday/Wendsday.

EUR/USD target 1.38 this week, 1.40 next week.

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Game Plan for the next few days. SPX projection.

February 2nd, 2010

Looking for this reversal to be stalled somewhere between 1101 and 1105. Then expecting a pullback, where I would be lookiing for entering longs. The ideal area would be ~1095. Target for the next leg up would be 1118-1120.

Ultimate target would be 1130, which is a exactly 25 pts. from the 1105 resistance area.

Some things to watch out:

  1. Support at 1095 and 1085-1090 must hold for the trend to continue higher.
  2. EUR is still relatively weak, even though it has gained some ground against the USD.
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Stock Market Direction. SPX, EUR/USD

January 27th, 2010

After a 70 pts. pullback it looks like the SPX index is ready to take a break.

1085 is acting as a strong support and I would be looking for a rebound to at least 1113 in the next several days. The game plan is following – we might go to 1105 from here, then a pullback to 1100 area, and the another leg up to 1113 area.

Currencies also support this theory, with the EUR/USD unwilling to go lower and 1.40 acting as a very strong support. Looking for a pullback to 1.43  in this pair.

My only concern here, is that indicators don’t support my theory of a coming rebound – both Stochastic and MACD show no signs of any divergence whatsoever.

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Stock market projection for January 2010

January 20th, 2010

It looks like, we’ve stuck in another range, as it was in November – mid December. Only this time it’s only 20 pts. wide. In fact the volatility has dropped so much in the past several months, that most traders, who were used to turbulent 2008-2009, are finding it difficult right now.

Still, there is plenty of opportunities out there, especially among individual stocks. I will post a list of most interesting ones later this week.

As for now, here is my view on the market. It looks like the market is straggling to make new highs, every 20-30 point move is met with the 20 point sell off. Though, we haven’t sold off yet. This makes me thinking, that we won’t, at least in the near term. Someone wants it to hold, and every pullback of 20-30 points is bought back. Also, all major resistance lines have been broken, opening more room to the upside. This are all indicators that we are going higher longer term.

The general rule is, that after a strong up day, similar to the one we saw yesterday, there is usually a continuation rally the following day. So, Right now, 1140-1142 offers a nice support level. Buying here with the 5 pt. stop is a good R/R trade. My target would be at ~1210. If a breakdown below 1128 occurs, I would have to change my view on the future direction.

As always, we need to remain cautios, as at this point relentless buying is just not worth. As the indexes don’t offer much of reward right now, it may be usefull to turn your attention to individual stocks.

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