Posts Tagged ‘market projection’

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S&P 500, EUR/USD Projection. 26.05

May 26th, 2010

After a big gap down yesterday in the SPX, the market managed to make all its losses back. This is a positive sign for the bulls. I expect the upside action to continue at least till the end of this week.

After a strong close yesterday, the futures made a little pullback overnight, forming a flag formation. I expect we will hit 1090-1093 today. If that level is taken out, next stop is 1105-1110. I would be cautious at this level, and take some profits off the table. Also place tight stops to protect your profits. For those who are looking to place some short bets, look at mining sector.

EUR/USD is also due to a pullback. First target is 1.2420-1.230.

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S&P 500 and EUR/USD Update (24.05)

May 22nd, 2010

After a turbulent price action last week, I would be looking for some rebound. Target for SPX 1100-1120 before thinking of re-shorting. Also the fact, that we had a down OPEX week supports this idea.

One of the stocks to consider to play this rebound is ADSK.

The stock is in clear uptrend. It has plenty of support at 27$. My first target would be 31-32. This should coincide with the S&P 500 index at 1100-1120.

The price action for the EUR/USD is not so clear. A lot of uncertainty regarding this pair short term.

Right now the pair is  in a clear downtrend (4H chart). If it doesn’t break above 1.26-1.27 come Monday, then it would be a good idea to place a short. First target 1.2430, second – 1.23. If that doesn’t hold, we will eventually see 1.20 soon.

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Stock market review 17.05

May 17th, 2010

After the volatile week, the market is at the crossroads right now. Key point is 1123-1113 area.

If we break above 1145, then most likely the market will take out new highs for the year. A breakdown below 1113 will lead to 1070-1060.

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Stock market update.

May 7th, 2010

If this analysis was not spot on, I don’t know what is.

We have got to 1200 by April OPEX, and now we are tumbling heavily. To be honest, I was not sure, that this is going to happen so soon. But here we are – all the gains for 2010 are erased, panic selling everywhere, VIX skyrocketed, investors are scared and don’t know what to expect next.

Guess what happens next couple of weeks?

We are going higher. That is right. I believe we should test 1150 a least, maybe will go as high as 1170. This volatility is great for a skilled trader. For an average investor it is really a mess, so if you are not comfortable trading here – I would suggest reducing you position size.

Check out this echo from 2007 for more clues:

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Stock Market Update. Another comparison.

March 10th, 2010

Market is in consolidation mode as projected. Compare the current price action with the one which took place 3 years ago.

After a consolidation (the like we are witnessing today), the market continued higher, even though the indicators suggested it was way overbought.

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Stock Market Update.

March 8th, 2010

Today was a slow day, as expected. No major news and sideways price action.

In fact some of the stocks I mentioned last week have pulled back a little, and have reached target levels:

ZMH – start accumulating at 59.30-59.70. Stop at 58.20. Target 65.00. 1/5 Risk/Reward.

RINO – has pulled back more than 4%, but has already managed to get into positive territory. Expecting a 50% rise by May.

CHK – buy now at 25.00-25.50. It is a save pick unless it trades below 24.00.

ADY – been burned in this one, but I believe it deserves a second chance. Right now it is stuck between 22 and 21. My strategy would be to buy 1/2 at the current level with the stop below 21. Add to the position when we breakout above 22. Looking for a gap close at 24.

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Stock Market Overview.

March 7th, 2010

Short term view on the market. Areas to watch closely – 1130 and 1115. Expecting to see some pullback next wee, but not more than 1-2% from Friday close. Then a rise further continues. I would personally like to see some base building before we approach 1150.

This is a longer term chart for SPX going back to August 2006. Look how the both circled areas look alike. If we use comparison analysis, we should get to 1200 by April Options Expiration. Then some sideways action is possible, as there is a ton of resistance above 1200 area. Though we might get as high as 1230-1250. I am really clueless, what happens next, maybe “sell in May and go away” will be the thing to do this year. We will see.

For the time being I am bullish on the market, unless we sell off below 1105/1085 in the next 2 weeks. If that happens, I will reevaluate my longer term view.

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SPX Update. Vacuum up to 1128-1130 area.

March 2nd, 2010

Markets kept going up slowly during yesterday’s trading session. We are now right below the resistance. should a breakout occur on Tuesday, we are going to 1130.

If there is now breakout today, I would be looking for a pullback to 1105. After that it’s anyone’s guess, what will happen next – a break up to 1130 and possibility of 1150, or a breakdown to 1080-1085.

Here is also a Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) chart below. It suggest that there is a lot of Vacuum in the 15 pt. range right above us. So, should the move up happen, it will be FAST.

Still holding my GS puts, as the stock remains under severe pressure.

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Shorted GS – Target 135 by April.

March 1st, 2010

Today I got the confirmation, that the market has stalled at current levels. The chances that we are going higher from here are limited. Strong resistance at 1113-1115 area (possible double top in the making).

From here we might trade sideways for awhile in a tight range of 30 pts. or go lower to my target of 1030. Only time will tell, which will happen, but one thing is for sure, longs is not the place to be at te moment.

I have desided to try my luck with GS. The stock has been under a severe pressure lately, there is ton of resistance above 160$, and should the next drop in the stock market occur, it will be one of the biggest losers.

Again, I am playing this with options. Bought some 150 April Puts @ 3.70. Looking for 135 by April Option Expiration. Stop is above 161$.

This trade is tricky, though, as we can fast to 150-148 are then reverse to break 160 resistance, so I will be monitoring this trade closely.

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Remaining cautious here.

February 27th, 2010

With the SPX being unable to take out overnight high at 1108, and not reaching my target of 1113, I have closed POT Calls for a loss. Don’t have any position at the moment – will wait till the sideways action resolves one way or the other. The market is currently stuck in a 10 pt. range, the breakout above 1108 will resume the uptrend, the breakdown below 1098 will resume downtrend.

My potential long would be POT, potential short is GS.

Have a nice weekend.

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