Trader Tony

Trading isn’t farming, nobody needs a cow to do the “work”. The work is done in the mind.

Posts Tagged ‘nasdaq’

More upside?! (2.08.09)

August 2nd, 2009

As I was writing before, the market is on the edge right now. The current situation is similar to one, when S&P 500 was trading at 800-900 level (if you check out my posts from that time, you’ll find out that I got burnt pretty badly). Even though the market seems to be overbought, nothing pushes it down and every minor dip is being bought. This is a real nightmare for bears.

My projection is that we’ll see another big push higher, maybe to 1030-1040 area. Otherwise we might pullback to 970-960 and then continue higher. This will depend on market behavior at the beginning of the coming week. If we are going higher, then I believe the move up will happen really fast, it will be a capitulation move for the bears. Looking for shorts will be a good idea after that.

Another interesting fact is that NASDAQ is quite outperforming S&P 500. The tech market has already made back 50% of its losses made from the top (see the chart), when the S&P 500 has more than 100 points to go to reach the same area. So, this time general sector must outperform tech stocks.

Also take a look at GOLD and currencies, as they might give you idea of where the money is going. We are forming a nice base in bouth GOLD and EUR/USD, ready to break out large. I will post more detail in my next post.

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Posted in Market Overview, Potential Setups

Tags: market projection nasdaq spx spx futures upside

Market Update (20.07)

July 20th, 2009

Even though the market looks toppish right now and everyone expects it to fall, the history shows that the market does what no one is expecting. I believe this is the case with the stocks in the coming weeks. Even though, we have rallied quite significantly from the 870-880 area (see my previous post) there is more room to go. Only this time, the main driving force will consist of crowd buyers. short sellers who urge to cover and some bogus positive news. that will fuel this rally. But what do we care? We are here to make money. so just follow the trend!

After a possible pullback to 930-940 (if we get there) I believe we are going to 960-970. If we get this pullback. I would advice to buy heavily. Though, I highly doubt we will. The only pullback we might get, would be 5 pts. max during night session and then the rally continues.

NASDAQ looks much more overbought, so we might see 20-30 points pullback here. if you are already long, there is really no need to do anything but wait.

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Posted in Market Overview, Potential Setups, Trade Alert

Tags: buy on pullback es futures nasdaq ndx SP 500. spx trend continuation

View on the markets (11.05)

May 10th, 2009

Long time no see.

Unfortunately, due to my other activities I will be able to post only 1-2 times a week. During my absence the market showed that this rally has really got some legs. So, I also changed my intermediate term view from bearish to slightly bullish. There are two possibilities:

Market will correct itself a little bit and then will continue to go higher on lower levels throughout the summer and we won’t see any significant correction until Autumn, as every pullback will be bought.
We will be stuck within a boring trading range, until some significant news will shake the market one way or the other,

So, here is my view on the market for the coming months:

EUR/USD – ready to take off.

GOLD – possible pullback, continuation of the up move.

NASDAQ – this is the weakest index of all. Still it has ton of support at 1280-1300 levels. And we won’t see any dramatical change in trend unless 1240-1250 is taken out. Until this happens I would be the buyer at all key support levels.

S&P 500 – Fist chart shows a really nice buying area at 890. On the second chart we can see a bigger picture, which shows potential Whycoff formation with a target of 1200! Still the market needs some time to consolidate itself before such a huge move up. I woul suggest buying at ~870. Bulls are safe here, while we are trading above 840/870. If this levels are taken out, I would have to reevaluate my view.

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Posted in Market Overview, Potential Setups

Tags: eur/usd gold Market Overview nasdaq SP 500.

S&P 500, NASDAQ, GOLD (22.12.2008)

December 22nd, 2008

SPX

NASDAQ

GOLD

Both indexes were unable to breach resistance above, so my previous view is still valid – we are going lower starting with January 2009.

P.S. Still holding my KBH puts and have no intention selling them.

Profitable Trading!

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Posted in Potential Setups, Trade Alert

Tags: gold nasdaq spx trading in december

NASDAQ, S&P 500 15.12

December 14th, 2008

NASDAQ has found support at 1170-1150 area and pushed higher. I personally believe, if there is any strength next week, it will come from tech sector.

As for the broader market action, I am not so sure…The problem is, that at first it looked like a potential Wyckoff formation (look more about it in Education section). Now, though I am not so sure, as last week’s price action was too choppy, no follow through. It starts looking more like a rising wedge.

Still the market was strong enough to find support at 850 level and crawl all the way back despite all the news. Will it rice further? Can’t tell you…What I am almost 90% sure about is that the market will tank hard in January. But from what levels? That’s the main question. Would really like to see it reach ~950 or at least ~920 and price momentum to stall.
First it should breach 900-905 on high volume and close above this mark. So that’s one possibility. Another one, is that the price reverses before year’s end. In this case I will be looking for it to fall below 850-845.

Here is also a list of things to consider next week:

Stocks tend to rise at the end of December (though it wasn’t a usual year)
Options Max-Pain (see my page about free options tools) is 99.00, which is bullish
Despite negative news on Friday, stocks closed in positive territory
US FOMC Interest Rate Decision