Trader Tony » ndx

Market Update (20.07)

tradertony — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 20:06:18 +0000

Even though the market looks toppish right now and everyone expects it to fall, the history shows that the market does what no one is expecting. I believe this is the case with the stocks in the coming weeks. Even though, we have rallied quite significantly from the 870-880 area (see my previous post) there is more room to go. Only this time, the main driving force will consist of crowd buyers. short sellers who urge to cover and some bogus positive news. that will fuel this rally. But what do we care? We are here to make money. so just follow the trend!

After a possible pullback to 930-940 (if we get there) I believe we are going to 960-970. If we get this pullback. I would advice to buy heavily. Though, I highly doubt we will. The only pullback we might get, would be 5 pts. max during night session and then the rally continues.

NASDAQ looks much more overbought, so we might see 20-30 points pullback here. if you are already long, there is really no need to do anything but wait.

NASDAQ, S&P 500, GOLD (9.02.09)

Trader Tony — Sat, 07 Feb 2009 21:18:24 +0000

Being wrong several times last week, I’ve realized, that the best trading style for me is to analyze all the charts in advance, pick key level areas and stick to the plan. If price reverses and goes the opposite – just change the plan!

The only risk here is sideways price action, a biggest killer for all profits. You may not lose it all in one trade, but you surely will bleed to deaf, so need to look out for this one, or even stop trading.

So, here are my thoughts for the next month:

Despite all the negativity, the market was able to break above key resistance areas and go higher. As you can see the main engines of this rise were tech stocks. NDX was able to break out from ascending triangle, next resistance area is 1300-1310 (~880 in SPX)

Even though stocks are in overbought condition right now, the last push to 1290-1300 is possible. After that, a retrace to 1230-1240, which makes it a great buying area with a possible return of ~150 points.

The same thing is with SPX – a little rise at the beginning, then a retrace to the sweet buying area. Will be good for at least 100 points.

NB! This buying areas are valid in case we get another up day monday/tuesday. This is basically what I am looking for – a little upside action at the beginning of the week, then a pullback and new upside action on expiration week. Remember though, if SPX trades below 820 and NDX below 1170 – all bets are off.

NASDAQ, S&P 500 15.12

Trader Tony — Sun, 14 Dec 2008 11:43:54 +0000

NASDAQ has found support at 1170-1150 area and pushed higher. I personally believe, if there is any strength next week, it will come from tech sector.

As for the broader market action, I am not so sure…The problem is, that at first it looked like a potential Wyckoff formation (look more about it in Education section). Now, though I am not so sure, as last week’s price action was too choppy, no follow through. It starts looking more like a rising wedge.

Still the market was strong enough to find support at 850 level and crawl all the way back despite all the news. Will it rice further? Can’t tell you…What I am almost 90% sure about is that the market will tank hard in January. But from what levels? That’s the main question. Would really like to see it reach ~950 or at least ~920 and price momentum to stall.
First it should breach 900-905 on high volume and close above this mark. So that’s one possibility. Another one, is that the price reverses before year’s end. In this case I will be looking for it to fall below 850-845.

Here is also a list of things to consider next week:

Stocks tend to rise at the end of December (though it wasn’t a usual year)
Options Max-Pain (see my page about free options tools) is 99.00, which is bullish
Despite negative news on Friday, stocks closed in positive territory
US FOMC Interest Rate Decision

Profitable trading!