Posts Tagged ‘resistance’

Exited Google Options. List of Stocks to trade

February 17th, 2010

Exited Google Options for a nice profit yesterday, made back what I have lost in KAZ and then some. Will be looking to buy some Feb@540 options at the pullback (if there is one) at the open today. The catalyst for the pullback might be the gap below and a resistance are at 1105 in SPX

Here is the whole list of long setups for the coming week:

Less risky.

WOOF, ABVT, SHLD, ATI, ADY, GOOG

More Risky
ACAD, AMD, APL, BKM, C, BPCG, CBI, CCOI, DPTR, HOG, INSP, JADE, CNA, JAH, HME, MSO

All the setups are almost the same, the idea is to buy a pullback in the rising stock.

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Game Plan for the next few days. SPX projection.

February 2nd, 2010

Looking for this reversal to be stalled somewhere between 1101 and 1105. Then expecting a pullback, where I would be lookiing for entering longs. The ideal area would be ~1095. Target for the next leg up would be 1118-1120.

Ultimate target would be 1130, which is a exactly 25 pts. from the 1105 resistance area.

Some things to watch out:

  1. Support at 1095 and 1085-1090 must hold for the trend to continue higher.
  2. EUR is still relatively weak, even though it has gained some ground against the USD.
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The Day after Tomorrow. Equities overview.

January 5th, 2010

The current price action is inline with my expectations. The projection about Financials turned out to be spot on, with the general market rallying “only” 1,60%, while the XLF index has gained more than 2,00%. So, we can say that the banks are pushing the market higher.

I have no idea of how long this party will be going, so I am placing my bets accordingly. Looking to short SPX futures near the 1135 area or on a breakdown below 1130 (see the chart below). Looking to add on the way down, otherwise will close for a loss.

spx2 5.01spx 5.01

SPX is continuing forming its rising wedge. To say fair enough, the chances of the sudden rise and the sudden fall are equal. For now I’ll stick with my view of a sudden collapse and will be looking to place short bets at a 1125 – 1135 area (see the chart below). There is also a possible Wyckoff Formation in the making.

gold 5.01GOLD also indicates, that the current rise might be done. See the resisting trend lines above? So, if you are into gold trading, I would suggest to short at 1122-1130.

PS. GOLD and SPX are trading at exactly the same level right now.

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Bump and Run Reversal formation on SPX, target 1080

November 10th, 2009

The rally yesterday was pretty good, now I would be looking for a pullback. The chart below suggests that a BARR (Bump and Run Reversal) chart pattern might be in play. In the nutshell, this pattern indicates accelerating trends, every last one faster than a previous one. This continues as long as the move up gets almost parabolic. The main trick here is to use money management and account sizing wisely, as you most definitely won’t catch the top.

This pattern usually works on the daily pretty well, so it would be interesting to see how it plays out on the 30-min. chart.

spx-10-10

Numbers 1, 2, 3 indicate trend acceleration. Target 1080-1082. This is a pretty good area to enter longs, for my 1120 target.

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Flipping short here. 1015 is a possible target.

November 4th, 2009

After today’s action I am strongly convinced, that 1061 level has marked a top for the coming month.

Check out the charts below:

spx-5-10 spx2-6-10

For the short case to be valid, we need to hold below 1055, otherwise today’s retrace might be interpreted as a pullback before another runup to 1080 level. The only thing that makes this possibility look weak, is the speed of the pullback.

My suggestion is to enter short here at ~1050. Use a 5-6 pts. stop. if we break above 1056, reverse your position from short to long, with a 20 pts. target. On the other hand, if we continue lower, scale 1/2 of your position out at 1015-1017 and drive another half all the way down to 990.

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Stock and Currency Markets Update (29 October)

October 29th, 2009
eurusd-29-10

EUR/USD has broken down support area at 1.48 and went to the mid 1.46. Right now I’m expecting to see a bounce to the 1.48 (classical support turned resistance).

spx-29-10

S&P 500 is also is due for a bounce up here. Several factors favors this case:

  1. Big put options open interest at 1080 in SPY.
  2. When the major trend line is broken, the price usually tends to come back to test resistance levels. We haven’t seen that comeback yet. My targets are 1055 and 1065. We might even go as high as 1070, but it will take awhile.
  3. EUR/USD pair is also indicating that we are due to some kind of rebound.

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Resistance zone in the SPX. 19.02

February 19th, 2009

New selling zone is 815-825. Market rallying above 830 is really unlikely event and IMPO the only reason e rallying today in the morning is option expiration tomorrow – market makers desperately need a close above 800, as this is where most of puts are sold.

Here is also one chart I found on stockcharts:

spx-1902

Will be buying puts in 815-825 area.

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Nice market action today.

January 6th, 2009

Nice market action today, both bulls and bears were able to profit. Unfortunately was out, so no trades for me today.

What is going to be next, will the market reverse and goes lower or is it just a little step back, and if it is, how little?

Here are some levels to keep an eye on:

spx1

I expect to see a drift to 900-890 level, and if the market finds support there – 950 is on cards. maybe even 1000. If it trades above today’s high, I wouldn’t touch it as a buyer – too much risk and limited reward.

Will keep you updated.

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Week started January the 5th.

January 4th, 2009

Well, the Holidays are over and we are back in the business.

So far, the market is in bullish mode and the 3rd option is in play. This is what we might face during January:

spx-200901

Looking for a little push higher, then a retrace and final push to 1000-1050 level.

You might also want to consider shorting gold, as it looks quite toppish here, and the move down might be good for 50-70 points. Would like to see it at 890-900 for better R/R:

gold

Some individual stock to consider (will post charts later):

BRCM – looks great as a buy here. Confirmed double bottom, trend continuation to the upside. Would liek to buy it on retrace with a target at 20-22

SNDK – is looking to close gap at 14.00. Has formed Inverted Head & Shoulders

One of the strongest groups are miners, check out rio, ccj, pcu, rs, clf

I still believe in much lower levels later this year, still as a traders we have to act both ways. One of the groups looking as great long term shorts are airlines – both from fundamental and technical perspectives. Just look at [[amr]], [[dal]], [[uaua]]. From the fundamental point of view, we have huge debts and slowing traffic. from technical – I expect to see some kind of head fake higher (to shake out weak hands and suck in more longs) and then a sharp reversal. Still, take this projection with a grain of salt – it will only plays out well with the overall market reversal.

Profitable Trading in 2009!

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GOLD (15.12)

December 14th, 2008

gold-1512

GOLD is trading in a beautiful channel with a strong resistance at 840-870 level. Makes it a good area to short. Keep in mind that it is one of the most volatile instruments to trade out there, so position sizing is very important. As we will be reaching this zone I will keep you updated.

Profitable Trading!

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