CLF looks like ready to break one way or the other. It is good for at least 15%-20% move from today’s market price. In case of more downside, the target would be 40-45$ in two weeks. Stop at 54$. If we break above 54$, then there is a good chance CLF is going to 60-65$ with the rest of the market. So, in general, no matter which way you chose, metal stocks are offering really good reward.
Posts Tagged ‘short setup’
Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF)
June 3rd, 2010
Shorted GS – Target 135 by April.
March 1st, 2010Today I got the confirmation, that the market has stalled at current levels. The chances that we are going higher from here are limited. Strong resistance at 1113-1115 area (possible double top in the making).
From here we might trade sideways for awhile in a tight range of 30 pts. or go lower to my target of 1030. Only time will tell, which will happen, but one thing is for sure, longs is not the place to be at te moment.
I have desided to try my luck with GS. The stock has been under a severe pressure lately, there is ton of resistance above 160$, and should the next drop in the stock market occur, it will be one of the biggest losers.
Again, I am playing this with options. Bought some 150 April Puts @ 3.70. Looking for 135 by April Option Expiration. Stop is above 161$.
This trade is tricky, though, as we can fast to 150-148 are then reverse to break 160 resistance, so I will be monitoring this trade closely.
The Day after Tomorrow. Equities overview.
January 5th, 2010The current price action is inline with my expectations. The projection about Financials turned out to be spot on, with the general market rallying “only” 1,60%, while the XLF index has gained more than 2,00%. So, we can say that the banks are pushing the market higher.
I have no idea of how long this party will be going, so I am placing my bets accordingly. Looking to short SPX futures near the 1135 area or on a breakdown below 1130 (see the chart below). Looking to add on the way down, otherwise will close for a loss.
SPX is continuing forming its rising wedge. To say fair enough, the chances of the sudden rise and the sudden fall are equal. For now I’ll stick with my view of a sudden collapse and will be looking to place short bets at a 1125 – 1135 area (see the chart below). There is also a possible Wyckoff Formation in the making.
GOLD also indicates, that the current rise might be done. See the resisting trend lines above? So, if you are into gold trading, I would suggest to short at 1122-1130.
PS. GOLD and SPX are trading at exactly the same level right now.
Entered short.
January 28th, 2009Selling SPY short here at 87.40. Stop at 88.00. Target 85.00
Edit: Exited at 87.05. Don’t like this price action, every pullback is bought. It may eventually shot higher from here.
Individual stocks (January 12th)
January 11th, 2009Here are some potential bullish and bearish setups:
[[AA]] – buy at 10.50-10.70. Stop below 10.30. Target 15.00. If it gaps up, wait for a pullback. If you are stopped out, this means that the stock has broken supportive trend line and is a good short candidate. In fact most of the stocks in today’s market are with the same characteristics – sooner or later they will break one way or the other.
[[AAPL]] – buy above 94.00. Stop below 89.00. Target 110.00
[[MT]] – place limit short at ~30.00. Trigger only with negative MACD divergence. Tight stop and target of 22-23
Gold and gold mining companies are remaining on my short list. Take a look at [[abx]] – we have a confirmed rising wedge here, and the stock is ready to dive lower.
[[brcm]] – was unable to take out previous high – bad sing. Besides the stock formed negative MACD divergence, which makes it an easy short should the rice occur.
[[ccj]] – short at ~20.00. Stop 21.00-22.00. Target 15.00
[[rio]] – is a greatest short of all the miners – the stock faces resistance from a 7-month old trend line and has formed a rising wedge. It is ready to dive. Try to short it as close to 15$, as possible. Stop at 16.00
[[fslr]] – another nice short possibility. Entry point 160-170. Stop 10$. Target 125-130.
[[ldk]] – this chart is came as a surprise for me – a clear BUY. May go to 20.00 from here.
[[pbr]] – shot entry at 28-29 level. Need MACD divergence confirmation though. Possible target 22.00-23.00.
[[exm]] – short at 9.00. Stop 10.00. Target 6.00. A no brainer.
Other shorts include [[rs]], [[ryl]], [[vlo]]. They represent good R/R possibilities and share similar patterns. The trick here is to determine broader market weakness and short these as close to the top as possible.
And finally, AIRLINES. Looking to short [[amr]], [[cal]] and [[dal]] at recent levels. I have already mentioned why they are good shorts, so at these levels they are great shorts. R/R is at least 1/3.
KBH (18.12)
December 17th, 2008
KBH is looking tired here. Despite all the volume it wasn’t able to go much higher. Indicators are also pointing to the downside. It makes a good short with a decent R/R ratio. (don’t forget to read my Swing Trading II topic).
Other short candidates with similar “symptomes” :
RYL, dhi, clf, gs, rs, iaci, brcm
All of them are in a downside trend, with a major resistance areas above and the broader market is just not there to go higher. Until it takes out 920 level – SHORT.
