The market was a real roller coaster lately. But that’s what traders need, right? After a sharp reversal last week, looking for SPX to rise to 1140. Though, need to see a break above 1108 first. As for the EUR/USD, my target would be 1.2250 before any serious weakness occurs.
Posts Tagged ‘SP 500.’
Triple-witching week ahead.
June 13th, 2010
Reversal in SPX and EUR/USD
June 8th, 2010Looking for a reversal here to 1075-1080 area. After that another fall down should follow. We may print 1068 as early as today.
Looks like EUR/USD has also put a short term bottom at 1.19. This reversal might take us to 1.2050-1.2070.
Market update 7.10.
June 6th, 2010Looking for 104$ (maybe even 103 sometime intraday) for SPY somatime Monday, Tuesday next week. After that expecting to see a reversal day and a rally to 106.50-107.00 later this week. After some rally looking for another push to 102-101$.
Need to watch MACD for any hints on divergence. Also please note that for this case to be valid, we need to stay below 108$ during trading early next week.
Here is another possibility:
This drop in SPY to ~104$ should coincede with the drop of CLF to 44.00 area. This is where I am planning to take some profits off the table. After that I would be looking for a rebound to ~48$ and then another push lower to 38-39.
S&P 500, EUR/USD Projection. 26.05
May 26th, 2010After a big gap down yesterday in the SPX, the market managed to make all its losses back. This is a positive sign for the bulls. I expect the upside action to continue at least till the end of this week.
After a strong close yesterday, the futures made a little pullback overnight, forming a flag formation. I expect we will hit 1090-1093 today. If that level is taken out, next stop is 1105-1110. I would be cautious at this level, and take some profits off the table. Also place tight stops to protect your profits. For those who are looking to place some short bets, look at mining sector.
EUR/USD is also due to a pullback. First target is 1.2420-1.230.
S&P 500 and EUR/USD Update (24.05)
May 22nd, 2010After a turbulent price action last week, I would be looking for some rebound. Target for SPX 1100-1120 before thinking of re-shorting. Also the fact, that we had a down OPEX week supports this idea.
One of the stocks to consider to play this rebound is ADSK.
The stock is in clear uptrend. It has plenty of support at 27$. My first target would be 31-32. This should coincide with the S&P 500 index at 1100-1120.
The price action for the EUR/USD is not so clear. A lot of uncertainty regarding this pair short term.
Right now the pair is in a clear downtrend (4H chart). If it doesn’t break above 1.26-1.27 come Monday, then it would be a good idea to place a short. First target 1.2430, second – 1.23. If that doesn’t hold, we will eventually see 1.20 soon.
Stock market review 17.05
May 17th, 2010After the volatile week, the market is at the crossroads right now. Key point is 1123-1113 area.
If we break above 1145, then most likely the market will take out new highs for the year. A breakdown below 1113 will lead to 1070-1060.
Stock market update.
May 7th, 2010If this analysis was not spot on, I don’t know what is.
We have got to 1200 by April OPEX, and now we are tumbling heavily. To be honest, I was not sure, that this is going to happen so soon. But here we are – all the gains for 2010 are erased, panic selling everywhere, VIX skyrocketed, investors are scared and don’t know what to expect next.
Guess what happens next couple of weeks?
We are going higher. That is right. I believe we should test 1150 a least, maybe will go as high as 1170. This volatility is great for a skilled trader. For an average investor it is really a mess, so if you are not comfortable trading here – I would suggest reducing you position size.
Check out this echo from 2007 for more clues:
S&P 500, EUR/USD, Oil, Gold
April 5th, 2010There is nothing new to add about the S&P 500, we are going up as planned. The good thing for the bulls is that the April has been the best performing month for the last 5- 10 years. The bad thing is that the party is likely over – the signs of distribution are strong, and with the current hype in the media about the jobs report I also expect retail investors to jump in – this would be the time to get out. I personally will be looking for some shorts after the April options Expiration.
Best sectors to be invested in right now are financials and energy.
I expect turbulence to continue in the EUR/USD currency pair. To save the truth, I was looking for 1.37 this week. It looks like I was dead wrong – even though we’ve had a nice base in the pair, the jobs report has send it below support lines on Friday and the next likely target is 1.34 – 1.3350. See the clear H&S pattern on the 1H chart?
Oil and Gold are definitely on the roll here. I continue to believe the yellow metal is going to 1160$ short term. As for the Black Gold, I expect it to outperform all the other asset classes. My first target is 90$, looking for 100$ by the beginning of the Summer. The price action from the February to June of last year may serve as a guidance.
Stock Market Update.
March 28th, 2010As we have been in the consilidation face all previous week, there is nothing new happening in the market right now. I still believe we will be slowly grinding higher with the occasional pullbacks.
The main levels to look at are 1150 and 20-day SMA. We might get some rise at the beginning of the week, as fund managers will be doing their usual end-of-month window dressing (buying best stocks, selling worst)
Market looks tired here. Pullback to 1140 is comming.
March 19th, 2010Stock market is looking tired here. I am seeing that some sectors are ready for a pullback (mining, financils, tech).
Now is a good place to establish shorts at 1160 with the stop at 1163. Target 1150 by Monday.
The index might reverse down to 1140-1130 during the next week. That would be a nice area to establish long positions. A drop below 1130 would make me very cautious if I were holding longs.
