Posts Tagged ‘support’

Stock Market Overview.

March 7th, 2010

Short term view on the market. Areas to watch closely – 1130 and 1115. Expecting to see some pullback next wee, but not more than 1-2% from Friday close. Then a rise further continues. I would personally like to see some base building before we approach 1150.

This is a longer term chart for SPX going back to August 2006. Look how the both circled areas look alike. If we use comparison analysis, we should get to 1200 by April Options Expiration. Then some sideways action is possible, as there is a ton of resistance above 1200 area. Though we might get as high as 1230-1250. I am really clueless, what happens next, maybe “sell in May and go away” will be the thing to do this year. We will see.

For the time being I am bullish on the market, unless we sell off below 1105/1085 in the next 2 weeks. If that happens, I will reevaluate my longer term view.

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EUR/USD Update.

March 3rd, 2010

1st Resistance at 1.3490. If broken, traget 1.3820. The chart below shows that we are still stuck in a channel.

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Dangerous formation for EUR bears.

March 2nd, 2010

EUR/USD is looking interesting here. If the area at 1.3450-13550 holds today, I expect to see 1.38 and then 1.40 in a couple of weeks. Right now it looks like a Wyckoff Formation in the making. MACD divergence also confirms this theory.

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The correction is likely other. Still need more confirmation.

February 23rd, 2010

The weeks has started with a pullback, which is a positive sign in my opinion, as this will help to fuel further rise in the days to come. Currently SPX is sitting at 1090-1095 area, which is a pretty solid support. If the level holds I am looking for 1110-1115 as first target and 1130 as the second target.

In case we don’t hold the support at 1090, this might be a sign of more downside to come near term. Targets on the downside are 1030-1010.

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Real trades. Update. Market Overview.

February 17th, 2010

With the latest dollar uprise and the resistance above, there isn’t much chances for the market to rally hard by the end of this week. being an expiration week, there will be a lot of option related chop involved, so I would advice active traders to take a break from the market, or to a least lower the position size.

Today I have made several trades, according to my game plan. Didn’t trade GOOG though, as it lacks momentum and stayed almost flat through the day.

In fact, I was able to make only two trades (others were not executed, as the price hasn’t reached my target):

ABVT – bough February Calls@60 for 0.60$, sold for 1.60$, nice return for a one day’s work.

ADY – The main thing, I like this company is its finances – strong balance sheet, fast growth.I also liek the huge gap above that needs to be closed, thus my target for this stocks is 32$ by next options expiration. Have been accumulating Calls all day long. Average price 1.55 for March@25 calls.

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Exited Google Options. List of Stocks to trade

February 17th, 2010

Exited Google Options for a nice profit yesterday, made back what I have lost in KAZ and then some. Will be looking to buy some Feb@540 options at the pullback (if there is one) at the open today. The catalyst for the pullback might be the gap below and a resistance are at 1105 in SPX

Here is the whole list of long setups for the coming week:

Less risky.

WOOF, ABVT, SHLD, ATI, ADY, GOOG

More Risky
ACAD, AMD, APL, BKM, C, BPCG, CBI, CCOI, DPTR, HOG, INSP, JADE, CNA, JAH, HME, MSO

All the setups are almost the same, the idea is to buy a pullback in the rising stock.

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Back to options trading. Trader Tony LOVES Google!

February 11th, 2010

Well, I guess, trading small cap stocks isn’t just for me. It is not just because of the big hit I took on KAZ (I have lost -13% in that trade). I guess the mane reason is the lack of liquidity and the need to be patient. And by patient. I mean – really patient.

For most of the people that would be the best way to invest in the markets – you research fundamentals, you dig for information, you compare long-term charts and competition, and then you make the move. You invest in several companies with the idea to hold this positions, at least 4-6 months.

For me, as a trader, this route doesn’t work – my capital is my working tool, and I cannot afford stash it away for half of the year.

So, now I am back to trading options, which are great tools to achieve higher return with well managed risk.

The chart below indicates, that the pullback we witnessed for the past 2 weeks may well be over, and some kind of rebound is going to happen soon. And by buying 3  Google Calls@Feb for 1.98$ I am betting that it has already started.

My stop is below 525$. My Targets are 550 and 570 (gap close)

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Game Plan for the next few days. SPX projection.

February 2nd, 2010

Looking for this reversal to be stalled somewhere between 1101 and 1105. Then expecting a pullback, where I would be lookiing for entering longs. The ideal area would be ~1095. Target for the next leg up would be 1118-1120.

Ultimate target would be 1130, which is a exactly 25 pts. from the 1105 resistance area.

Some things to watch out:

  1. Support at 1095 and 1085-1090 must hold for the trend to continue higher.
  2. EUR is still relatively weak, even though it has gained some ground against the USD.
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Stock Market Direction. SPX, EUR/USD

January 27th, 2010

After a 70 pts. pullback it looks like the SPX index is ready to take a break.

1085 is acting as a strong support and I would be looking for a rebound to at least 1113 in the next several days. The game plan is following – we might go to 1105 from here, then a pullback to 1100 area, and the another leg up to 1113 area.

Currencies also support this theory, with the EUR/USD unwilling to go lower and 1.40 acting as a very strong support. Looking for a pullback to 1.43  in this pair.

My only concern here, is that indicators don’t support my theory of a coming rebound – both Stochastic and MACD show no signs of any divergence whatsoever.

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The list of potential plays.

January 22nd, 2010

Rebound Plays
CLF- accumulate at 40-45. Should be above 55 if market holds.
NTRI- buy at ~22. target 27.
TRA – buy at 33. stop below 32.
AGU – buy 60-55
MOS – buy at 55.
APL – buy at 9$ or near 200ema.
LDL – buy at 6.50. Stop below 6. Target 8.

Breakout plays.

MINI – buy at ~15. add above 15.50. target 18-19
TSO – symm. triangle, buy above 15
VLO – 200ema acts as resistance. Buy when stock closes above it.

For those of you who are able to stomach big swings. Here is a list of Micro Cap Stocks with interesting formations.

Micro Cap. Trading at 5$
XTEX – pullback to 6-7 to buy
PETD – buy above 20. targets 23-25
BBEP – buy at 200ema
PKOH – buy at 6.50
FTBK – buy at 4.0-4.5
ALY – buy at 4. Target 6.
WNR – buy at 5. Target 7.
DSPG – buy at 5.80. Target 7$

Micro Caps. Trading Below 5$
KAZ – buy at 1.30.target 2.5
CPE – buy at a pullback to 1.7. stop at 1.5. target 4-5 (huge gap in that area)
CFW – symm. triangle. buy at 0.90. target 2-2.50
NGAS – buy at 1.6. target 3.5
OMNI – buy above 1.75. Traget 2.75

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