Trader Tony

Trading isn’t farming, nobody needs a cow to do the “work”. The work is done in the mind.

Posts Tagged ‘support’

SPX, GOLD

June 28th, 2010

It looks like SPX is poised to rebound to 1095-1100. After that I would expect the continuation of the downtrend. If you are looking for longer term investments, Gold is offering some pretty amazing buying opportunity. My bold prediction would be a rise of 20% in the next 2 months.

My advice would be to accumulate position in the 1245-1255 range with the stop below 1235. First target on this move would be 1300-1310. After that I expect a minor pullback a another sharp rise to 1450-1500. That should result in formation of a climax top and a sharp reversal.

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Posted in Investing Ideas, Market Overview, Potential Setups

Tags: breakout gold rising wedge spx spx 500 support

Market update 7.10.

June 6th, 2010

Looking for 104$ (maybe even 103 sometime intraday) for SPY somatime Monday, Tuesday next week. After that expecting to see a reversal day and a rally to 106.50-107.00 later this week. After some rally looking for another push to 102-101$.

Need to watch MACD for any hints on divergence. Also please note that for this case to be valid, we need to stay below 108$ during trading early next week.

Here is another possibility:

This drop in SPY to ~104$ should coincede with the drop of CLF to 44.00 area. This is where I am planning to take some profits off the table. After that I would be looking for a rebound to ~48$ and then another push lower to 38-39.

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Posted in Market Overview, Trade update

Tags: clf distribution metal stocks real trade resistance reversal SP 500. spx spx 500 spy support

S&P 500, EUR/USD Projection. 26.05

May 26th, 2010

After a big gap down yesterday in the SPX, the market managed to make all its losses back. This is a positive sign for the bulls. I expect the upside action to continue at least till the end of this week.

After a strong close yesterday, the futures made a little pullback overnight, forming a flag formation. I expect we will hit 1090-1093 today. If that level is taken out, next stop is 1105-1110. I would be cautious at this level, and take some profits off the table. Also place tight stops to protect your profits. For those who are looking to place some short bets, look at mining sector.

EUR/USD is also due to a pullback. First target is 1.2420-1.230.

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Posted in Market Overview, Potential Setups

Tags: eur/usd Market Overview market projection SP 500. spx spx 500 support symmetrical triangle

S&P 500 and EUR/USD Update (24.05)

May 22nd, 2010

After a turbulent price action last week, I would be looking for some rebound. Target for SPX 1100-1120 before thinking of re-shorting. Also the fact, that we had a down OPEX week supports this idea.

One of the stocks to consider to play this rebound is ADSK.

The stock is in clear uptrend. It has plenty of support at 27$. My first target would be 31-32. This should coincide with the S&P 500 index at 1100-1120.

The price action for the EUR/USD is not so clear. A lot of uncertainty regarding this pair short term.

Right now the pair is in a clear downtrend (4H chart). If it doesn’t break above 1.26-1.27 come Monday, then it would be a good idea to place a short. First target 1.2430, second – 1.23. If that doesn’t hold, we will eventually see 1.20 soon.

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Posted in Market Overview, Potential Setups

Tags: eur/usd Market Overview market projection SP 500. stocks to buy support wyckoff formation

Stock market update.

May 7th, 2010

If this analysis was not spot on, I don’t know what is.

We have got to 1200 by April OPEX, and now we are tumbling heavily. To be honest, I was not sure, that this is going to happen so soon. But here we are – all the gains for 2010 are erased, panic selling everywhere, VIX skyrocketed, investors are scared and don’t know what to expect next.

Guess what happens next couple of weeks?

We are going higher. That is right. I believe we should test 1150 a least, maybe will go as high as 1170. This volatility is great for a skilled trader. For an average investor it is really a mess, so if you are not comfortable trading here – I would suggest reducing you position size.

Check out this echo from 2007 for more clues:

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Posted in Market Overview

Tags: crash Market Overview market projection SP 500. spx support

Stock Market Update.

March 13th, 2010

Despite all the sceptincs there is still up room to go for this stock market. The current rise won’t stop until someone who is propping it up will stop doing this. The past week was inline with my analysis. We have got a small reversal in the nightsession on Monday on ES, then continued sideways-higher all week.

The next week is Option Expiration week. Looking for some consolidation in 1160-1140 area. After that another push higher going into April. The major support is now at 1130, so until this one is taken out, the bullish case is alive and well.

EUR/USD is also stuck in the channel. It is finally braking out from the 1.3750-1.3450 zone, where we have been stuck for a month. I would be looking for a small pullback here at the beginning of the week. Then another push into 1.39, maybe 1.40.

Longer term charts suggest that the possible target for this coming reversal is 1.42, after that we will move back down. Though, this is just a pure speculation at this point.

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Posted in Market Overview

Tags: eur/usd Market Overview market update resistance sideways action spx support

Stock Market Overview.

March 7th, 2010

Short term view on the market. Areas to watch closely – 1130 and 1115. Expecting to see some pullback next wee, but not more than 1-2% from Friday close. Then a rise further continues. I would personally like to see some base building before we approach 1150.

This is a longer term chart for SPX going back to August 2006. Look how the both circled areas look alike. If we use comparison analysis, we should get to 1200 by April Options Expiration. Then some sideways action is possible, as there is a ton of resistance above 1200 area. Though we might get as high as 1230-1250. I am really clueless, what happens next, maybe “sell in May and go away” will be the thing to do this year. We will see.

For the time being I am bullish on the market, unless we sell off below 1105/1085 in the next 2 weeks. If that happens, I will reevaluate my longer term view.

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Posted in Market Overview

Tags: Market Overview market projection market update resistance SP 500. spx spx 500 support

EUR/USD Update.

March 3rd, 2010

1st Resistance at 1.3490. If broken, traget 1.3820. The chart below shows that we are still stuck in a channel.

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Posted in Trade update

Tags: eur/usd resistance support trend following wyckoff formation

Dangerous formation for EUR bears.

March 2nd, 2010

EUR/USD is looking interesting here. If the area at 1.3450-13550 holds today, I expect to see 1.38 and then 1.40 in a couple of weeks. Right now it looks like a Wyckoff Formation in the making. MACD divergence also confirms this theory.

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Posted in Market Overview, Trade Alert

Tags: divergence eur/usd MACD support Trade Alert wyckoff formation

The correction is likely other. Still need more confirmation.

February 23rd, 2010

The weeks has started with a pullback, which is a positive sign in my opinion, as this will help to fuel further rise in the days to come. Currently SPX is sitting at 1090-1095 area, which is a pretty solid support. If the level holds I am looking for 1110-1115 as first target and 1130 as the second target.