Trader Tony » trend following

S&P 500, EUR/USD, Oil, Gold

tradertony — Mon, 05 Apr 2010 06:28:56 +0000

There is nothing new to add about the S&P 500, we are going up as planned. The good thing for the bulls is that the April has been the best performing month for the last 5- 10 years. The bad thing is that the party is likely over – the signs of distribution are strong, and with the current hype in the media about the jobs report I also expect retail investors to jump in – this would be the time to get out. I personally will be looking for some shorts after the April options Expiration.

Best sectors to be invested in right now are financials and energy.

I expect turbulence to continue in the EUR/USD currency pair. To save the truth, I was looking for 1.37 this week. It looks like I was dead wrong – even though we’ve had a nice base in the pair, the jobs report has send it below support lines on Friday and the next likely target is 1.34 – 1.3350. See the clear H&S pattern on the 1H chart?

Oil and Gold are definitely on the roll here. I continue to believe the yellow metal is going to 1160$ short term. As for the Black Gold, I expect it to outperform all the other asset classes. My first target is 90$, looking for 100$ by the beginning of the Summer. The price action from the February to June of last year may serve as a guidance.

Stock Market Update.

tradertony — Sun, 28 Mar 2010 18:20:45 +0000

As we have been in the consilidation face all previous week, there is nothing new happening in the market right now. I still believe we will be slowly grinding higher with the occasional pullbacks.

The main levels to look at are 1150 and 20-day SMA. We might get some rise at the beginning of the week, as fund managers will be doing their usual end-of-month window dressing (buying best stocks, selling worst)

EUR/USD Update.

tradertony — Wed, 03 Mar 2010 12:04:21 +0000

1st Resistance at 1.3490. If broken, traget 1.3820. The chart below shows that we are still stuck in a channel.

The correction is likely other. Still need more confirmation.

tradertony — Tue, 23 Feb 2010 22:51:56 +0000

The weeks has started with a pullback, which is a positive sign in my opinion, as this will help to fuel further rise in the days to come. Currently SPX is sitting at 1090-1095 area, which is a pretty solid support. If the level holds I am looking for 1110-1115 as first target and 1130 as the second target.

In case we don’t hold the support at 1090, this might be a sign of more downside to come near term. Targets on the downside are 1030-1010.

List of Stocks to trade.

tradertony — Thu, 18 Feb 2010 10:15:25 +0000

Here are some interesting possibilities, with 20-30% upside potencial in the Basic Materials Industry:

CDII – buy at 1.55, stop below 1.45. Will be looking for a 100% return in a couple of months.

TIE – this is a real gem, check out the chart below. Looking for >50% return in a couple of months. Buy at 10-11. Stop below 10.40.

ATI – it represents the same chart pattern as TIE, though expected returns are not that exciting. Thus I would suggest buying some 45@March Call Options in this one. Target ~50$ by March Expiration.

Exited Google Options. List of Stocks to trade

tradertony — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 12:56:59 +0000

Exited Google Options for a nice profit yesterday, made back what I have lost in KAZ and then some. Will be looking to buy some Feb@540 options at the pullback (if there is one) at the open today. The catalyst for the pullback might be the gap below and a resistance are at 1105 in SPX

Here is the whole list of long setups for the coming week:

Less risky.

WOOF, ABVT, SHLD, ATI, ADY, GOOG

More Risky
ACAD, AMD, APL, BKM, C, BPCG, CBI, CCOI, DPTR, HOG, INSP, JADE, CNA, JAH, HME, MSO

All the setups are almost the same, the idea is to buy a pullback in the rising stock.

Game Plan for the next few days. SPX projection.

tradertony — Tue, 02 Feb 2010 19:24:35 +0000

Looking for this reversal to be stalled somewhere between 1101 and 1105. Then expecting a pullback, where I would be lookiing for entering longs. The ideal area would be ~1095. Target for the next leg up would be 1118-1120.

Ultimate target would be 1130, which is a exactly 25 pts. from the 1105 resistance area.

Some things to watch out:

Support at 1095 and 1085-1090 must hold for the trend to continue higher.
EUR is still relatively weak, even though it has gained some ground against the USD.

Stock market projection for January 2010

tradertony — Wed, 20 Jan 2010 10:09:28 +0000

It looks like, we’ve stuck in another range, as it was in November – mid December. Only this time it’s only 20 pts. wide. In fact the volatility has dropped so much in the past several months, that most traders, who were used to turbulent 2008-2009, are finding it difficult right now.

Still, there is plenty of opportunities out there, especially among individual stocks. I will post a list of most interesting ones later this week.

As for now, here is my view on the market. It looks like the market is straggling to make new highs, every 20-30 point move is met with the 20 point sell off. Though, we haven’t sold off yet. This makes me thinking, that we won’t, at least in the near term. Someone wants it to hold, and every pullback of 20-30 points is bought back. Also, all major resistance lines have been broken, opening more room to the upside. This are all indicators that we are going higher longer term.

The general rule is, that after a strong up day, similar to the one we saw yesterday, there is usually a continuation rally the following day. So, Right now, 1140-1142 offers a nice support level. Buying here with the 5 pt. stop is a good R/R trade. My target would be at ~1210. If a breakdown below 1128 occurs, I would have to change my view on the future direction.

As always, we need to remain cautios, as at this point relentless buying is just not worth. As the indexes don’t offer much of reward right now, it may be usefull to turn your attention to individual stocks.

Flipping short here. 1015 is a possible target.

tradertony — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 21:28:47 +0000

After today’s action I am strongly convinced, that 1061 level has marked a top for the coming month.

Check out the charts below:

For the short case to be valid, we need to hold below 1055, otherwise today’s retrace might be interpreted as a pullback before another runup to 1080 level. The only thing that makes this possibility look weak, is the speed of the pullback.

My suggestion is to enter short here at ~1050. Use a 5-6 pts. stop. if we break above 1056, reverse your position from short to long, with a 20 pts. target. On the other hand, if we continue lower, scale 1/2 of your position out at 1015-1017 and drive another half all the way down to 990.

Market projection (21.02)

Trader Tony — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 10:53:48 +0000

Expecting a small rebound next week. Target area 800-810.

Need to watch closely next move, not to miss this donward movement. The resistance at 800 SPX is really massive. The ideal thing would be to see something like rising wedge, but of cource we know that things don’t always pan out as predicted. Next stop is going to be at 740-730.