Trader Tony » wedge

Took a loss in SPX. Bough USD/JPY

tradertony — Wed, 20 Jan 2010 15:52:55 +0000

As I have posted before, SPX was forming a nice buying pattern, so I decided to grab some contracts at 1142. Was stupid enough to hold it for too long, so exited finally at a loss 1138.

After witnessing a downfall in stocks, with all support levels being broken, I turned my attention to currencies. Here is a nice long opportunity in USD/JPY.

Bought some at 91.20, have a very tight stop here at 91.10, so it either works out right away or it doesn’t. My first target is at 92.00, 96-97 longer term.

If I stopped out, will look to get back into position.

The Day after Tomorrow. Equities overview.

tradertony — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 12:27:13 +0000

The current price action is inline with my expectations. The projection about Financials turned out to be spot on, with the general market rallying “only” 1,60%, while the XLF index has gained more than 2,00%. So, we can say that the banks are pushing the market higher.

I have no idea of how long this party will be going, so I am placing my bets accordingly. Looking to short SPX futures near the 1135 area or on a breakdown below 1130 (see the chart below). Looking to add on the way down, otherwise will close for a loss.

SPX is continuing forming its rising wedge. To say fair enough, the chances of the sudden rise and the sudden fall are equal. For now I’ll stick with my view of a sudden collapse and will be looking to place short bets at a 1125 – 1135 area (see the chart below). There is also a possible Wyckoff Formation in the making.

GOLD also indicates, that the current rise might be done. See the resisting trend lines above? So, if you are into gold trading, I would suggest to short at 1122-1130.

PS. GOLD and SPX are trading at exactly the same level right now.

Week started January the 5th.

Trader Tony — Sun, 04 Jan 2009 17:40:04 +0000

Well, the Holidays are over and we are back in the business.

So far, the market is in bullish mode and the 3rd option is in play. This is what we might face during January:

Looking for a little push higher, then a retrace and final push to 1000-1050 level.

You might also want to consider shorting gold, as it looks quite toppish here, and the move down might be good for 50-70 points. Would like to see it at 890-900 for better R/R:

Some individual stock to consider (will post charts later):

BRCM – looks great as a buy here. Confirmed double bottom, trend continuation to the upside. Would liek to buy it on retrace with a target at 20-22

SNDK – is looking to close gap at 14.00. Has formed Inverted Head & Shoulders

One of the strongest groups are miners, check out rio, ccj, pcu, rs, clf

I still believe in much lower levels later this year, still as a traders we have to act both ways. One of the groups looking as great long term shorts are airlines – both from fundamental and technical perspectives. Just look at [[amr]], [[dal]], [[uaua]]. From the fundamental point of view, we have huge debts and slowing traffic. from technical – I expect to see some kind of head fake higher (to shake out weak hands and suck in more longs) and then a sharp reversal. Still, take this projection with a grain of salt – it will only plays out well with the overall market reversal.

Profitable Trading in 2009!