Trader Tony

Trading isn’t farming, nobody needs a cow to do the “work”. The work is done in the mind.

Posts Tagged ‘wyckoff formation’

S&P 500 and EUR/USD Update (24.05)

May 22nd, 2010

After a turbulent price action last week, I would be looking for some rebound. Target for SPX 1100-1120 before thinking of re-shorting. Also the fact, that we had a down OPEX week supports this idea.

One of the stocks to consider to play this rebound is ADSK.

The stock is in clear uptrend. It has plenty of support at 27$. My first target would be 31-32. This should coincide with the S&P 500 index at 1100-1120.

The price action for the EUR/USD is not so clear. A lot of uncertainty regarding this pair short term.

Right now the pair is in a clear downtrend (4H chart). If it doesn’t break above 1.26-1.27 come Monday, then it would be a good idea to place a short. First target 1.2430, second – 1.23. If that doesn’t hold, we will eventually see 1.20 soon.

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Posted in Market Overview, Potential Setups

Tags: eur/usd Market Overview market projection SP 500. stocks to buy support wyckoff formation

EUR/USD Update.

March 3rd, 2010

1st Resistance at 1.3490. If broken, traget 1.3820. The chart below shows that we are still stuck in a channel.

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Posted in Trade update

Tags: eur/usd resistance support trend following wyckoff formation

Dangerous formation for EUR bears.

March 2nd, 2010

EUR/USD is looking interesting here. If the area at 1.3450-13550 holds today, I expect to see 1.38 and then 1.40 in a couple of weeks. Right now it looks like a Wyckoff Formation in the making. MACD divergence also confirms this theory.

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Posted in Market Overview, Trade Alert

Tags: divergence eur/usd MACD support Trade Alert wyckoff formation

The Day after Tomorrow. Equities overview.

January 5th, 2010

The current price action is inline with my expectations. The projection about Financials turned out to be spot on, with the general market rallying “only” 1,60%, while the XLF index has gained more than 2,00%. So, we can say that the banks are pushing the market higher.

I have no idea of how long this party will be going, so I am placing my bets accordingly. Looking to short SPX futures near the 1135 area or on a breakdown below 1130 (see the chart below). Looking to add on the way down, otherwise will close for a loss.

SPX is continuing forming its rising wedge. To say fair enough, the chances of the sudden rise and the sudden fall are equal. For now I’ll stick with my view of a sudden collapse and will be looking to place short bets at a 1125 – 1135 area (see the chart below). There is also a possible Wyckoff Formation in the making.

GOLD also indicates, that the current rise might be done. See the resisting trend lines above? So, if you are into gold trading, I would suggest to short at 1122-1130.

PS. GOLD and SPX are trading at exactly the same level right now.

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Posted in Market Overview, Potential Setups, Trade Alert, Trade update

Tags: distribution eur/usd gold resistance rising wedge short sale short setup short trade SP 500. spx spx 500 Trade Alert wedge wyckoff formation

Looking for 1025 in GOLD.

September 18th, 2009

Despite my medium term pessimism on the stock/commodities market, I think we are poised to the last push higher. Check out the charts below.

This is a classical Wyckoff schematics in the making. See that “spring”? There is a good chance Gold is going to test 1023-1025 area today, which also means another leg down for USD and a test of yesterday’s highs by S&P 500.

If you want to find out more about Wyckoff formation, check out this link. Stay tuned for more updates.

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Posted in Market Overview, Potential Setups, Trade Alert

Tags: gold spx wyckoff formation wyckoff shematics

Market projection for the coming 4-6 months.

September 14th, 2009

Here is an interesting chart, taken from www.xtrenders.com website. I am posting it here, as it really resonates with my own expectations.

Right now, we are in the market, where every small dip is being bought, a lot of positive news coming out, media starts to talk more and more about the “recovery”. So, all in all, the public’s mind is shifting towards “booming economic times ahead”, while some more sophisticated players are quietly selling their assets.

I believe, we will be stuck in a 70-90 point range till the end of the year. This is a good environment for a Wyckoff Top being formed. But it’s only a speculation at this point. Right now, the best way to trade this market is to ride it sideways, by buying support and selling resistance. There are also different strategies to multiply your earnings with options. Check out MarketWatch to find more about it. Click to get your Free 30 Day Trial of MarketWatch’s Proactive Options Trader Newsletter.

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Posted in Investing Ideas, Market Overview, Potential Setups

Tags: market in 2010 market in january market update options spx wyckoff formation

EUR/USD, S&P 500 (10.08)

August 10th, 2009

It seems to me, the market has finally reached a possible peak point for the recent run-up. I will most definately NOT buy here. If you are already long, I would suggest to close partially your current positions or even enter a small short. Just take a closer look at the charts.

The first indication, that the market is ready to reverse is EUR/USD. It was unable to rise above 1.4444 (nice number) and after some sideways action it fell back down. EUR/USD has formed a Wyckoff top (you can read more on that here).

We have a strong negative divergence in MACD and the upper trend line is acting as resistance. As you can see from the charts, the current market action is pretty similar to the one we had at the beginning of June. Even if we rise some more, the rise would artificial and we’ll fall even more harder.

My target for this pullback is in a 960-940 range.

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Posted in Market Overview, Potential Setups

Tags: eur/usd SP 500. top wyckoff formation